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22102 Indian Creek Dr #1
D Composite 44.56
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +14.2/15.0
  • Cash flow +6.8/30.0
  • 1% rule +6.1/10.0
  • Appreciation +4.3/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +2.9/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.8/5.0
  • Schools +2.6/10.0
  • DSCR +1.1/10.0

$135,000

22102 Indian Creek Dr #1 · Poinciana, FL 34759
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 812 sqft · Condo · 101 Days on market
Built 2005 Good condition $166/sqft · 15% below area Est $158k · 15% under $454/mo HOA · 30% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to your perfect Florida retreat! This attractively priced, two-bedroom, two-bathroom corner-unit condominium offers exceptional value and flexibility in a beautifully maintained gated community. Whether you're searching for a primary residence, a vacation getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes. The community allows both short-term and long-term rentals, making it ideal for homeowners and investors alike. Step inside and discover a comfortable, inviting space designed to feel like a true home away from home. The desirable corner-unit location provides added privacy, abundant natural light, and a spacious feel throughout.

Key facts

  • Corner unit
  • $454 HOA
  • Community pool

Tags

CORNER UNIT

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
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What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (22.3% below list).
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
  • Recommended offer: $105k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
  • Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary School (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,058 students, 50% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); New Beginnings High School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #655 of 667 statewide, top 98%, 753 students, 66% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1457 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $104,891 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
  5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.11%
Cap rate
4.44%
Cash-on-cash
-6.61%
DSCR
0.71
GRM
7.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$158,500
List price
$135,000
Delta
-14.83%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
6 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
631 Lake Marion Golf Resort 0.37mi 2/2.0 784 (-3%) 1mo $117,000 $149 76
13201 Indian Creek Dr Unit B 0.04mi 2/2.0 981 (+21%) 1mo $125,000 $127 72
13101 Indian Creek Dr Unit N/A 0.03mi 2/2.0 981 (+21%) 2mo $129,000 $131 72
15201 Indian Creek Dr Unit B 0.06mi 2/2.0 981 (+21%) 1mo $133,000 $136 72
1644 Cumin Dr 0.84mi 2/2.0 923 (+14%) 0mo $166,000 $180 42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-19.1%
Equity multiple
0.24×
Total profit
$-28,747
Equity at exit
$29,514
10-year hold
IRR
-15.7%
Equity multiple
-0.15×
Total profit
$-43,628
Equity at exit
$28,443

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

ZIP-level market 34759

Home prices YoY
-0.5%
Rents YoY
1.1%
Active inventory
1457
Price-to-rent
7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,492 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$708
Tax est. 1.5%
$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
Insurance
$56
HOA
$454
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$313
Net cashflow
$-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,756
Max offer price $104,891
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-115 -5% $-161 +0% $-208 +5% $-255 +10% $-301
Rent -10% $-326 -5% $-267 +0% $-208 +5% $-149 +10% $-90
Rate -1.0pp $-140 -0.5pp $-174 base $-208 +0.5pp $-243 +1.0pp $-279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$33,750
Closing costs
$4,050
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 36 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
341 Port Pleasant Dr Unit 341 Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 812 $1,400 $1.72 73d 1 0.00mi
305 Port Pleasant Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 812 $1,400 $1.72 73d 1 0.03mi
13102 Indian Creek Dr Unit 1 Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 981 $1,375 $1.40 9d 1 0.04mi
13102 Indian Creek Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 981 $1,435 $1.46 9d 1 0.04mi
13102 Indian Creek Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 981 $1,435 $1.46 73d 1 0.04mi
13201 Indian Creek Dr Unit B Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 981 $1,450 $1.48 9d 1 0.04mi
6101 Lake Marion Golf Resort Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 981 $1,229 $1.25 119d 1 0.05mi
3102 Lake Marion Golf Resort Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 784 $1,350 $1.72 73d 1 0.08mi
3201 Lake Marion Golf Resort Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 981 $1,325 $1.35 0d 1 0.08mi
1202 Lake Marion Golf Resort #1202 Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 981 $1,200 $1.22 119d 1 0.10mi
456 Bay Leaf Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0–2.5 1450 $2,005 $1.38 9d 1 0.52mi
425 Danube Way Poinciana, FL 3.0 2.0 1019 $1,585 $1.56 9d 1 0.66mi
1852 Coriander Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 1056 $1,350 $1.28 73d 1 0.72mi
1786 Coriander Dr Poinciana, FL 3.0 2.0 1056 $1,500 $1.42 9d 1 0.81mi
1782 Coriander Dr Poinciana, FL 3.0 2.0 1056 $1,500 $1.42 9d 1 0.82mi
1764 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL 2.0 2.0 1056 $1,390 $1.32 98d 1 0.84mi
1762 Coriander Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 1056 $1,325 $1.25 9d 1 0.84mi
1604 Cumin Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 1055 $1,500 $1.42 9d 1 0.85mi
1769 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL 2.0 2.0 784 $1,299 $1.66 119d 1 0.85mi
1763 Coriander Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 1055 $2,000 $1.90 73d 1 0.86mi
1631 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL 2.0 2.0 1055 $1,500 $1.42 119d 1 0.86mi
1631 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL 2.0 2.0 1055 $1,400 $1.33 86d 1 0.86mi
1631 Cumin Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 1089 $1,400 $1.29 73d 1 0.86mi
1602 Cumin Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 1055 $1,500 $1.42 73d 1 0.86mi
1746 Coriander Dr Unit 1746 Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 1050 $1,467 $1.40 6d 1 0.86mi
1746 Coriander Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 1050 $1,399 $1.33 4d 1 0.86mi
1757 Coriander Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 923 $1,595 $1.73 9d 1 0.87mi
1586 Cumin Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 1055 $1,500 $1.42 9d 1 0.87mi
1605 Cumin Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 923 $1,400 $1.52 5d 1 0.89mi
1560 Cumin Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 923 $1,395 $1.51 73d 1 0.89mi
1601 Cumin Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 923 $1,550 $1.68 73d 1 0.89mi
1552 Cumin Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 1056 $1,600 $1.52 9d 1 0.90mi
1585 Cumin Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 923 $1,495 $1.62 9d 1 0.90mi
1563 Cumin Dr Poinciana, FL 2.0 2.0 1056 $1,400 $1.33 73d 1 0.91mi
465 Rio Grande Ln Poinciana, FL 2.0 1.0 700 $1,500 $2.14 9d 1 0.99mi
106 Herring Ln Poinciana, FL 3.0 2.0 1062 $1,495 $1.41 73d 1 1.38mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
No lease restrictions indicated
HOA & community
HOA requiredMonthly condo fee $246 (land included)Additional monthly association fee $35Total monthly association fees listed $454 (combined)Association amenities include cable TV, pool, internet, maintenance (structure and grounds), recreational facilities, security, tennis courtsCommunity amenities include fitness center, playground, pool, sidewalks, tennis courtsPets allowed (max 15 lb)

Exterior

Parking
Assigned parking
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableCable availableBroadband/high-speed internet availableSprinkler meter
Home design
Residential condominiumAttached unitOne storyFaces westUnit on floor 1
Construction
Block and stucco constructionTile roofSlab foundationCompleted conditionBuilt as part of Building 1
Exterior features
Rain guttersSidewalk

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
Bedrooms
2 bedrooms (Unit on 1st floor)
Flooring
LaminateTile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features
Ceiling fansLiving room/dining room comboThermostatWindow treatments
Laundry & utility
Inside laundry

HOA detail $454/mo · $5,448/yr condo

Likely covers
security
Assessments
None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $135,000 Active 101 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    days on market $135,000 Active 100 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $135,000 Active 99 DOM
  4. 2026-09-20
    days on market $135,000 Active 97 DOM
  5. 2026-09-19
    days on market $135,000 Active 96 DOM
  6. 2026-09-18
    days on market $135,000 Active 95 DOM
  7. 2026-09-17
    days on market $135,000 Active 94 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $135,000 Active 93 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $135,000 Active 92 DOM
  10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $135,000 Active 91 DOM
  11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $135,000 Active 90 DOM
  12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $135,000 Active 89 DOM
  13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $135,000 Active 88 DOM
  14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 82 DOM
  15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 81 DOM
  16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 80 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 77 DOM
  18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 76 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $135,000 Active 75 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $135,000 Active 74 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $135,000 Active 73 DOM
  22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $135,000 Active 72 DOM
  23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $135,000 Active 71 DOM
  24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $135,000 Active 70 DOM
  25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $135,000 Active 69 DOM
  26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $135,000 Active 68 DOM
  27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $135,000 Active 67 DOM
  28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
  29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $135,000 Active 65 DOM
  30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $135,000 Active 64 DOM
  31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $135,000 Active 63 DOM
  32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $135,000 Active 62 DOM
  33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $135,000 Active 61 DOM
  34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $135,000 Active 60 DOM
  35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $135,000 Active 59 DOM
  36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $135,000 Active 58 DOM
  37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $135,000 Active 57 DOM
  38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $135,000 Active 56 DOM
  39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $135,000 Active 55 DOM
  40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 54 DOM
  41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 53 DOM
  42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $135,000 Active 52 DOM
  43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 51 DOM
  44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 50 DOM
  45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 49 DOM
  46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
  47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 45 DOM
  48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 44 DOM
  49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $135,000 Active 43 DOM
  50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $135,000 Active 41 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$17,907
− Mortgage interest
−$7,562
− Property taxes
−$2,025
− Insurance
−$675
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,433
− Management
−$1,433
− HOA
−$5,448
− Depreciation
−$3,927
Taxable loss
−$4,595
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,103
After-tax cash flow
$-1,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,060–$12,180 screening

This well-maintained, two-bedroom townhouse in a gated community offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
  • Both Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Laurel Elementary School F FL #1,882/2,144 Nat'l #26,438/41,679 Middle Lake Marion Creek Middle School F FL #522/571 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Haines City Senior High School F FL #544/667 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Polk
NCES district ID
1201590
Math proficiency
39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
43% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$43,979
Composite
34.74/100
National rank
#5132
State rank
#62 of 73 in FL
D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Poinciana

Score
57/100
State rank
#859
US rank
#21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Poinciana, FL
County
Polk County · 752,975 people
City population
91,336
Metro
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
Population (ZIP)
44,568
Household income
$69,373
Rent vs Own
20.4% rent · 79.6% own
Severe rent burden
6% of renters

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
752,975 people
By 2030
804,621 · +6.9%
By 2040
906,117 · +20.3%
By 2050
1,000,476 · +32.9%
By 2075
1,197,520 · +59.0%
By 2100
1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
Common ancestry
Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
Foreign-born
17% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home
49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

2024 margin
Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
2008→2024 swing
-14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
All cycles
2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-15.6% since first listed
5 events — show timeline
  • 2026-07-09 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-06-15 Listed $139,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-05-31 Listing Removed Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-12-28 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-12-02 Listed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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