3144 Bond Special Rd

Van Buren, AR 72956

$1F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,588 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,268/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,560
• Tax + insurance: −$496
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-1,054/mo
• Annual: $-12,649/yr
• Cap rate: 2.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.18%
• DSCR: 0.32
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $83,305

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#75 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Van Buren School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #62 of 238 in AR (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 446275.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 247 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crawford County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 3.9% in Van Buren — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.