Hydrangea Plan

Castle Hayne, NC 28429

$295,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,883 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 115 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,647/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,896
• Tax + insurance: −$603
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-407/mo
• Annual: $-4,888/yr
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.83%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $101,229

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $296k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-407 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (10.6% below list).
• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $265k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#335 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• New Hanover County Schools (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #61 of 178 in NC (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Castle Hayne Elementary (math 47% / reading 53%, grade D+, #409 of 1,410 statewide, top 29%, 459 students, 99% FRL); Holly Shelter Middle (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #209 of 475 statewide, top 45%, 858 students, 100% FRL); Emsley A Laney High (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B-, #179 of 535 statewide, top 34%, 2,220 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 42% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 263 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,581 units permitted in New Hanover County in 2024 (1,185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New Hanover County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.