Hydrangea Plan · Castle Hayne, NC 28429

$295,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,883 sqft · SingleFamily · 115 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story townhome includes a first-floor primary suite, two secondary bedrooms, and two-and-one-half bathrooms. Immediately inside the entrance is a powder bathroom and open concept two-story eat-in that flows directly into the kitchen and two-story great room, with an optional fireplace, with access to the covered porch. An optional pet pad and wraparound porch are available at the entry. The coveted downstairs primary suite features a walk-in closet and an optional boxed ceiling and dual vanities. A laundry room is located just outside of the primary suite for ultimate convenience and offers an optional bench and cubby and deluxe cabinets for extra storage.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Open concept eat-in
• Walk in closet

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• OPEN CONCEPT EAT-IN
• TWO STORY GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PORCH
• WRAPAROUND PORCH
• WALK IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $295,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $361,534.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $296k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-407 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#335 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• New Hanover County Schools (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #61 of 178 in NC (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Castle Hayne Elementary (math 47% / reading 53%, grade D+, #409 of 1,410 statewide, top 29%, 459 students, 99% FRL); Holly Shelter Middle (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #209 of 475 statewide, top 45%, 858 students, 100% FRL); Emsley A Laney High (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B-, #179 of 535 statewide, top 34%, 2,220 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 42% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 263 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,581 units permitted in New Hanover County in 2024 (1,185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• New Hanover County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $264,699 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.83%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,534
• List price: $295,990
• Delta: -18.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1121 Saint Augustine Dr Lot 37	0.76mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,896 (+1%)	0mo	$369,000	$195	59
6220 Centipede Pl	0.90mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,810 (-4%)	5mo	$395,000	$218	48
4333 Rough Stalk Ln Lot 295	1.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-6%)	1mo	$418,990	$236	47
6201 Centipede Pl Lot 163	0.85mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (-4%)	5mo	$375,000	$207	47
1218 Saint Augustine Dr	0.98mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,803 (-4%)	5mo	$359,000	$199	47
2173 Emerald Ave	0.91mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,987 (+6%)	5mo	$365,000	$184	46
4314 Rough Stalk Ln Lot 308	1.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-6%)	3mo	$401,490	$226	46
4334 Rough Stalk Ln Lot 313	1.10mi	3/2.0	1,618 (-14%)	3mo	$392,490	$243	37
2238 Emerald Ave Lot 242	1.04mi	3/2.0	1,618 (-14%)	4mo	$345,000	$213	36
2206 Emerald Ave	0.95mi	3/2.0	1,653 (-12%)	9mo	$350,000	$212	35
1221 Saint Augustine Dr	0.99mi	3/2.0	1,618 (-14%)	8mo	$345,000	$213	33
5813 Sidbury Rd	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,558 (-17%)	10mo	$395,000	$254	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-84,489
• Equity at exit: $53,906

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-106,817
• Equity at exit: $31,259

Cash invested: $101,229 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.6 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $369,990 ($210/sqft)
• Median days on market: 104 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -8.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28429

• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,647 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,896
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$452 /mo · $5,423/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,163

Max offer price $302,589

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-158	-5% $-282	+0% $-407	+5% $-532	+10% $-657
Rent	-10% $-616	-5% $-512	+0% $-407	+5% $-303	+10% $-198
Rate	-1.0pp $-225	-0.5pp $-315	base $-407	+0.5pp $-501	+1.0pp $-596

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,383
• Closing costs: $10,846
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5300 Sidbury Rd Castle Hayne, NC	4.0	3.5	2074	$2,714	$1.31	0d	7	0.12mi
4605 Sidbury Crossing Dr Castle Hayne, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$2,041	$1.98	0d	76	0.29mi
6105 Dichondra Dr Castle Hayne, NC	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2064	$2,301	$1.11	0d	9	0.70mi
4413 Cohan Cir Wilmington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	979	$1,736	$1.77	0d	12	1.18mi
4348 Majesty Dr Unit 362 Castle Hayne, NC	4.0	2.5	1948	$2,400	$1.23	6d	1	1.38mi
4339 Majesty Dr Castle Hayne, NC	4.0	2.5	1554	$2,300	$1.48	0d	1	1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $295,990

Exterior

• Home design: Located at 1030 Rodanthe Ave, Castle Hayne, NC 28429Plan model: Hydrangea
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,883 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan is named HydrangeaNew construction plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $295,990 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $295,990 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $295,990 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $295,990 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $295,990 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $295,990 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $295,990 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $295,990 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $295,990 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $295,990 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $295,990 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $295,990 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $295,990 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $295,990 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $295,990 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $295,990 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $295,990 Active 94 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $295,990 Active 91 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $295,990 Active 90 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $295,990 Active 89 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $295,990 Active 88 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $295,990 Active 87 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $295,990 Active 85 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $295,990 Active 84 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $295,990 Active 83 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $295,990 Active 82 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $295,990 Active 81 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $295,990 Active 80 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $295,990 Active 79 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $295,990 Active 78 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $295,990 Active 77 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $295,990 Active 76 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $295,990 Active 75 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $295,990 Active 74 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $295,990 Active 73 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $295,990 Active 72 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $295,990 Active 71 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $295,990 Active 70 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $295,990 Active 69 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $295,990 Active 68 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $295,990 Active 67 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $295,990 Active 66 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $295,990 Active 65 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $295,990 Active 64 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $295,990 Active 63 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $295,990 Active 60 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $295,990 Active 59 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $295,990 Active 58 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $295,990 Active 56 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $295,990 Active 54 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,252
• − Property taxes: −$5,423
• − Insurance: −$1,808
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,541
• − Management: −$2,541
• − Depreciation: −$10,517
• Taxable loss: −$11,318
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,716
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story townhome is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a modern kitchen, two-and-a-half bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The home has the potential to be further enhanced with some exterior painting, landscaping improvements, and smart home features to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Castle Hayne Elementary D+ NC #409/1,410 Nat'l #12,529/41,679 Middle Holly Shelter Middle F NC #209/475 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Emsley A Laney High B- NC #179/535 Nat'l #3,176/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Hanover County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703330
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 43.13/100
• National rank: #3081
• State rank: #61 of 178 in NC

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Castle Hayne

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #335
• US rank: #13604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing C Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: New Hanover County · 259,517 people
• City population: 9,662
• Metro: Wilmington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 9,662
• Household income: $72,337
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own

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Population outlook (New Hanover County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,517 people
• By 2030: 279,586 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 318,223 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 354,831 · +36.7%
• By 2075: 437,158 · +68.5%
• By 2100: 486,769 · +87.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · New Hanover

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.0pp toward D · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.1 2016: R+4.1 2012: R+4.7 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.39%
• Current HPI: 220.4084
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Wilmington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $295,990

Exterior

• Home design: Located at 1030 Rodanthe Ave, Castle Hayne, NC 28429Plan model: Hydrangea
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,883 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan is named HydrangeaNew construction plan