5209 Frederick Ave

Port Orange, FL 32127

$119,500C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 816 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $178/mo
• Annual: $2,136/yr
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.38%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $33,460

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#131 in FL, #1,957 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D+, commute D+.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Port Orange Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 361 students, 62% FRL); Silver Sands Middle School (math 50% / reading 52%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,165 students, 54% FRL); Spruce Creek High School (math 37% / reading 61%, grade D, #193 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,569 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 419 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.