5209 Frederick Ave · Port Orange, FL 32127

$119,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 816 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1972 5,227 sqft lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with land included, offering comfort, durability, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. The exterior features hardy board siding, metal roof, and enclosed sunroom, providing added strength and curb appeal. Inside, the home boasts new windows in the kitchen, dining, living, and sunroom, allowing for abundant natural light. Flooring has been upgraded with 3/4'' plywood subflooring beneath laminate throughout the main living areas, while both bathrooms and the sunroom feature tile flooring for easy maintenance. Both bathrooms also include tiled walls, with the primary suite offering a full bath and the second bathroom featuring a spacious 4-foot tiled walk-in shower. An additional room that can be used for guests or an office. Additional highlights include 2'' white vinyl blinds in all rooms and two vinyl sliding doors leading to the sunroom, creating a bright and inviting space ideal for relaxing or entertaining. This property combines functionality, durability, and comfort--an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking a move-in ready home.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Enclosed sunroom
• Upgraded flooring

Tags

• HARDY BOARD SIDING
• METAL ROOF
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• NEW WINDOWS
• UPGRADED FLOORING
• TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#131 in FL, #1,957 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D+, commute D+.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Port Orange Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 361 students, 62% FRL); Silver Sands Middle School (math 50% / reading 52%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,165 students, 54% FRL); Spruce Creek High School (math 37% / reading 61%, grade D, #193 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,569 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 419 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,330 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.38%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,472
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $557
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32127

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 419
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,599/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,025

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $212	+0% $178	+5% $144	+10% $110
Rent	-10% $79	-5% $129	+0% $178	+5% $227	+10% $277
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $208	base $178	+0.5pp $147	+1.0pp $116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5173 Pineland Ave Port Orange, FL	2.0	1.5	914	$1,750	$1.91	26d	1	0.14mi
5249 Taylor Ave Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.5	672	$1,650	$2.46	16d	1	0.17mi
722 Cindy Cir Port Orange, FL	2.0	1.5	850	$1,275	$1.50	16d	1	0.28mi
3307 Oak Trail Run #7 Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	910	$1,650	$1.81	26d	1	0.99mi
4211 New Haven Ct Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	902	$2,000	$2.22	26d	1	1.04mi
940 Village Trl Unit 4-306 Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	1006	$2,000	$1.99	16d	1	1.17mi
524 Taylor Rd Port Orange, FL	2.0	1.0	922	$1,500	$1.63	26d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $119,500 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $119,500 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,500 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,500 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,500 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,500 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,500 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,500 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,500 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    status Active 1110-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1110 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with land included, offering comfort, durability, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. The exterior features hardy board siding, metal roof, and enclosed sunroom, providing added strength and curb appeal. Inside, the home boasts new windows in the kitchen, dining, living, and sunroom, allowing for abundant natural light. Flooring has been upgraded with 3/4'' plywood subflooring beneath laminate throughout the main living areas, while both bathrooms and the sunroom feature tile flooring for easy maintenance. Both bathrooms also include tiled walls, with the primary suite offering a full bath and the second bathroom featuring a spacious 4-foot tiled walk-in shower. An additional room that can be used for guests or an office. Additional highlights include 2'' white vinyl blinds in all rooms and two vinyl sliding doors leading to the sunroom, creating a bright and inviting space ideal for relaxing or entertaining. This property combines functionality, durability, and comfort--an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking a move-in ready home.

19. 2026-04-24
    status Pending 1110-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1110 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with land included, offering comfort, durability, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. The exterior features hardy board siding, metal roof, and enclosed sunroom, providing added strength and curb appeal. Inside, the home boasts new windows in the kitchen, dining, living, and sunroom, allowing for abundant natural light. Flooring has been upgraded with 3/4'' plywood subflooring beneath laminate throughout the main living areas, while both bathrooms and the sunroom feature tile flooring for easy maintenance. Both bathrooms also include tiled walls, with the primary suite offering a full bath and the second bathroom featuring a spacious 4-foot tiled walk-in shower. An additional room that can be used for guests or an office. Additional highlights include 2'' white vinyl blinds in all rooms and two vinyl sliding doors leading to the sunroom, creating a bright and inviting space ideal for relaxing or entertaining. This property combines functionality, durability, and comfort--an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking a move-in ready home.

20. 2026-04-13
    price $119,500 1110-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1110 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with land included, offering comfort, durability, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. The exterior features hardy board siding, metal roof, and enclosed sunroom, providing added strength and curb appeal. Inside, the home boasts new windows in the kitchen, dining, living, and sunroom, allowing for abundant natural light. Flooring has been upgraded with 3/4'' plywood subflooring beneath laminate throughout the main living areas, while both bathrooms and the sunroom feature tile flooring for easy maintenance. Both bathrooms also include tiled walls, with the primary suite offering a full bath and the second bathroom featuring a spacious 4-foot tiled walk-in shower. An additional room that can be used for guests or an office. Additional highlights include 2'' white vinyl blinds in all rooms and two vinyl sliding doors leading to the sunroom, creating a bright and inviting space ideal for relaxing or entertaining. This property combines functionality, durability, and comfort--an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking a move-in ready home.

21. 2026-04-09
    listed $129,500 Active 1110-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1110 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with land included, offering comfort, durability, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. The exterior features hardy board siding, metal roof, and enclosed sunroom, providing added strength and curb appeal. Inside, the home boasts new windows in the kitchen, dining, living, and sunroom, allowing for abundant natural light. Flooring has been upgraded with 3/4'' plywood subflooring beneath laminate throughout the main living areas, while both bathrooms and the sunroom feature tile flooring for easy maintenance. Both bathrooms also include tiled walls, with the primary suite offering a full bath and the second bathroom featuring a spacious 4-foot tiled walk-in shower. An additional room that can be used for guests or an office. Additional highlights include 2'' white vinyl blinds in all rooms and two vinyl sliding doors leading to the sunroom, creating a bright and inviting space ideal for relaxing or entertaining. This property combines functionality, durability, and comfort--an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking a move-in ready home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,599 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,599 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$1,599
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $236
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$57
• After-tax cash flow: $2,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port Orange

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #1957

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Orange, FL
• County: Volusia County · 556,871 people
• City population: 75,051
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,612
• Household income: $71,676
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 812.0

Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.71%
• Current HPI: 282.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.83%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — Daytona MLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — Daytona MLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $119,500 Daytona MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $129,500 Daytona MLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,599 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.