345 The Strand

East Marion, NY 11939

$3,195,000B

6 bd · 5.5 ba · 4,175 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $45,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16,755
• Tax + insurance: −$5,325
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$9,450
• Net cashflow: $13,412/mo
• Annual: $160,945/yr
• Cap rate: 11.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.99%
• DSCR: 1.80
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $894,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/5.5-bath land listed at $3.19M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($161k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($45k rent vs $3.19M).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.91M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.91M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $133k of equity ($22k loan paydown + $111k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,051 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $605k; list at $3.19M implies a 428% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $895k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$215k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.