345 The Strand · East Marion, NY 11939

$3,195,000

6 bd · 5.5 ba · 4,175 sqft · Land · 95 Days on market

Built 2026 0.48 ac lot $765/sqft · 11% above area Est $2875k · 11% over $58/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

UNDER CONSTRUCTION - IN PHASE 1 - PROPERTY IS CURRENTLY BEING CLEARED FOR EXCAVATION - Discover an exceptional new construction in the beloved Pebble Beach Farms of East Marion. This stunning modern farmhouse build is thoughtfully designed with an open living space through generous quarters encompassing six bedrooms, five and half bathrooms and dedicated entertaining space inside and out. The design incorporates sought out features such as first floor bedroom with ensuite bath, large double shower with soaking tub in the master bedroom, a rear balcony off of the master bedroom overlooking the rear preserve and covered rear patio. A bright open concept layout highlights a chef’s kitchen with island, pantry and high end appliances with additional amenities including natural hardwood throughout, central air, smart thermostat technology, a finished walk out basement and detached one car garage across 4,175 sqft of interior living space. Outside, enjoy a lush landscaped yard with in ground vinyl heated pool backing the communities preserved land for plenty of privacy and tranquility. Pebble Beach Farms offers exclusive access to its own private beach, tennis courts, basketball, bocce ball and pickle ball in its own community park. In close proximity is the famed Kontokosta Vineyard, Islands End Golf Club and seconds from Greenport Village. East Marion is one of the North Fork’s best-kept secrets offering privacy, charm, and easy access to everything you love about the Northfork. Claim your Northfork getaway now for opportunities to still customize finishes, features, textiles and colors.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Garage
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/5.5-bath land listed at $3.19M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($161k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($45k rent vs $3.19M).
• Recommended offer: $2.91M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,051 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $133k of equity ($22k loan paydown + $111k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $895k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$215k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.91M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $605k; list at $3.19M implies a 428% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,907,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.99%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,874,678
• List price: $3,195,000
• Delta: 11.14%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $1,319,985
• Equity at exit: $1,521,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $3,405,969
• Equity at exit: $2,413,992

Cash invested: $894,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11939

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $45,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16,755
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,994 /mo · $47,925/yr
• Insurance: −$1,331
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$9,450
• Net cashflow: $13,412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $28,023

Max offer price $3,195,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $798,750
• Closing costs: $95,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 Sound Dr Greenport, NY	5.0	4.5	3700	$45,000	$12.16	44d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $3,195,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,195,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,195,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,195,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,195,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-03-15
    listed $3,195,000 Active 1621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1621 chars)

    UNDER CONSTRUCTION - IN PHASE 1 - PROPERTY IS CURRENTLY BEING CLEARED FOR EXCAVATION - Discover an exceptional new construction in the beloved Pebble Beach Farms of East Marion. This stunning modern farmhouse build is thoughtfully designed with an open living space through generous quarters encompassing six bedrooms, five and half bathrooms and dedicated entertaining space inside and out. The design incorporates sought out features such as first floor bedroom with ensuite bath, large double shower with soaking tub in the master bedroom, a rear balcony off of the master bedroom overlooking the rear preserve and covered rear patio. A bright open concept layout highlights a chef’s kitchen with island, pantry and high end appliances with additional amenities including natural hardwood throughout, central air, smart thermostat technology, a finished walk out basement and detached one car garage across 4,175 sqft of interior living space. Outside, enjoy a lush landscaped yard with in ground vinyl heated pool backing the communities preserved land for plenty of privacy and tranquility. Pebble Beach Farms offers exclusive access to its own private beach, tennis courts, basketball, bocce ball and pickle ball in its own community park. In close proximity is the famed Kontokosta Vineyard, Islands End Golf Club and seconds from Greenport Village. East Marion is one of the North Fork’s best-kept secrets offering privacy, charm, and easy access to everything you love about the Northfork. Claim your Northfork getaway now for opportunities to still customize finishes, features, textiles and colors.

16. 2026-01-15
    soldstatus $605,000 Closed 1280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1280 chars)

    Welcome to one of the North Fork’s most coveted private communities, Pebble Beach Farms of East Marion. This rare vacant lot offers a unique opportunity to build your dream home in a tranquil coastal setting surrounded by natural beauty, peace, and exclusivity. Set within a meticulously maintained neighborhood of luxury homes, this parcel promises the perfect balance of seclusion and convenience. Whether you’re seeking a seasonal getaway or year-round retreat, this lot provides the canvas for a custom-built escape tailored to your lifestyle. The spacious lot is ideal for building a luxury residence with room for pool and outdoor living. Pebble Beach Farms offers exclusive access to its private beach, private tennis courts, basketball, bocce ball and pickle ball in its own community park. Also in close proximity is the beloved Kontokosta Vineyard, Islands End Golf Club and seconds from Greenport Village. East Marion is one of the North Fork’s best-kept secrets offering privacy, charm, and easy access to everything you love about the Northfork. Whether you’re a builder, investor, or future homeowner, this offering is a rare find in a tightly held, upscale coastal enclave. Build your legacy on the North Fork at 345 The Strand, East Marion.

17. 2025-07-31
    status Pending 1280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1280 chars)

    Welcome to one of the North Fork’s most coveted private communities, Pebble Beach Farms of East Marion. This rare vacant lot offers a unique opportunity to build your dream home in a tranquil coastal setting surrounded by natural beauty, peace, and exclusivity. Set within a meticulously maintained neighborhood of luxury homes, this parcel promises the perfect balance of seclusion and convenience. Whether you’re seeking a seasonal getaway or year-round retreat, this lot provides the canvas for a custom-built escape tailored to your lifestyle. The spacious lot is ideal for building a luxury residence with room for pool and outdoor living. Pebble Beach Farms offers exclusive access to its private beach, private tennis courts, basketball, bocce ball and pickle ball in its own community park. Also in close proximity is the beloved Kontokosta Vineyard, Islands End Golf Club and seconds from Greenport Village. East Marion is one of the North Fork’s best-kept secrets offering privacy, charm, and easy access to everything you love about the Northfork. Whether you’re a builder, investor, or future homeowner, this offering is a rare find in a tightly held, upscale coastal enclave. Build your legacy on the North Fork at 345 The Strand, East Marion.

18. 2025-07-04
    listed $595,000 Active 1280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1280 chars)

    Welcome to one of the North Fork’s most coveted private communities, Pebble Beach Farms of East Marion. This rare vacant lot offers a unique opportunity to build your dream home in a tranquil coastal setting surrounded by natural beauty, peace, and exclusivity. Set within a meticulously maintained neighborhood of luxury homes, this parcel promises the perfect balance of seclusion and convenience. Whether you’re seeking a seasonal getaway or year-round retreat, this lot provides the canvas for a custom-built escape tailored to your lifestyle. The spacious lot is ideal for building a luxury residence with room for pool and outdoor living. Pebble Beach Farms offers exclusive access to its private beach, private tennis courts, basketball, bocce ball and pickle ball in its own community park. Also in close proximity is the beloved Kontokosta Vineyard, Islands End Golf Club and seconds from Greenport Village. East Marion is one of the North Fork’s best-kept secrets offering privacy, charm, and easy access to everything you love about the Northfork. Whether you’re a builder, investor, or future homeowner, this offering is a rare find in a tightly held, upscale coastal enclave. Build your legacy on the North Fork at 345 The Strand, East Marion.

19. 2025-07-03
    historical $595,000 1280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1280 chars)

    Welcome to one of the North Fork’s most coveted private communities, Pebble Beach Farms of East Marion. This rare vacant lot offers a unique opportunity to build your dream home in a tranquil coastal setting surrounded by natural beauty, peace, and exclusivity. Set within a meticulously maintained neighborhood of luxury homes, this parcel promises the perfect balance of seclusion and convenience. Whether you’re seeking a seasonal getaway or year-round retreat, this lot provides the canvas for a custom-built escape tailored to your lifestyle. The spacious lot is ideal for building a luxury residence with room for pool and outdoor living. Pebble Beach Farms offers exclusive access to its private beach, private tennis courts, basketball, bocce ball and pickle ball in its own community park. Also in close proximity is the beloved Kontokosta Vineyard, Islands End Golf Club and seconds from Greenport Village. East Marion is one of the North Fork’s best-kept secrets offering privacy, charm, and easy access to everything you love about the Northfork. Whether you’re a builder, investor, or future homeowner, this offering is a rare find in a tightly held, upscale coastal enclave. Build your legacy on the North Fork at 345 The Strand, East Marion.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $540,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$178,970
• − Property taxes: −$47,925
• − Insurance: −$15,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$43,200
• − Management: −$43,200
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$92,945
• Taxable income: $117,089
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$28,101
• After-tax cash flow: $132,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oysterponds Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $71,948
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6712
• State rank: #506 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Marion

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1051
• US rank: #20822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Marion, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,741

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scottish 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Current HPI: 281.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+437.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Listed $3,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Sold (MLS) $605,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-04 Listed $595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-03 Coming Soon $595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,098 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.