3834 Union Mercer Rd

Brownsville, TN 38012

$130,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,369/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $183/mo
• Annual: $2,194/yr
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.03%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#374 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Haywood County (town): math 4% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #137 of 139 in TN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 22 units permitted in Haywood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Haywood County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.8% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Painting — The paint on the interior walls and exterior siding appears to be in fair condition with some wear.
• Minor: Landscaping — The landscaping is simple and could be improved to enhance curb appeal.