3834 Union Mercer Rd · Brownsville, TN 38012

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Built 1995 Fair condition 2.20 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious triplex mobile home features an expansive living area complete with a cozy fireplace—perfect for gatherings Situated on 2.2 acres, the property offers plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living. Inside, you'll find two dining areas ideal for hosting family meals and entertaining guests. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with a functional island for meal prep, an electric range with air fryer and convection capabilities, and a built-in desk within the cabinetry—perfect for organizing recipes or managing household tasks. Abundant cabinet storage throughout the home provides excellent organization, and the dedicated laundry area even includes a convenient folding space. The primary suite is designed for comfort, featuring a garden tub, double sinks, and ample space to unwind at the end of the day. Add some love and care to make it your own.

Key facts

• Two dining areas
• Functional island
• Built-in desk

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LIVING AREA
• COZY FIREPLACE
• TWO DINING AREAS
• FUNCTIONAL ISLAND
• ELECTRIC RANGE WITH AIR FRYER
• BUILT-IN DESK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.8% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#374 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Haywood County (town): math 4% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #137 of 139 in TN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 22 units permitted in Haywood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Haywood County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.03%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-9,398
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $6,898
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38012

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-29
   price $130,000 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   This spacious triplex mobile home features an expansive living area complete with a cozy fireplace—perfect for gatherings Situated on 2.2 acres, the property offers plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living. Inside, you'll find two dining areas ideal for hosting family meals and entertaining guests. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with a functional island for meal prep, an electric range with air fryer and convection capabilities, and a built-in desk within the cabinetry—perfect for organizing recipes or managing household tasks. Abundant cabinet storage throughout the home provides excellent organization, and the dedicated laundry area even includes a convenient folding space. The primary suite is designed for comfort, featuring a garden tub, double sinks, and ample space to unwind at the end of the day. Add some love and care to make it your own.

2. 2026-04-01
   price $150,000 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   This spacious triplex mobile home features an expansive living area complete with a cozy fireplace—perfect for gatherings Situated on 2.2 acres, the property offers plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living. Inside, you'll find two dining areas ideal for hosting family meals and entertaining guests. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with a functional island for meal prep, an electric range with air fryer and convection capabilities, and a built-in desk within the cabinetry—perfect for organizing recipes or managing household tasks. Abundant cabinet storage throughout the home provides excellent organization, and the dedicated laundry area even includes a convenient folding space. The primary suite is designed for comfort, featuring a garden tub, double sinks, and ample space to unwind at the end of the day. Add some love and care to make it your own.

3. 2026-02-26
   listed $155,000 Active 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   This spacious triplex mobile home features an expansive living area complete with a cozy fireplace—perfect for gatherings Situated on 2.2 acres, the property offers plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living. Inside, you'll find two dining areas ideal for hosting family meals and entertaining guests. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with a functional island for meal prep, an electric range with air fryer and convection capabilities, and a built-in desk within the cabinetry—perfect for organizing recipes or managing household tasks. Abundant cabinet storage throughout the home provides excellent organization, and the dedicated laundry area even includes a convenient folding space. The primary suite is designed for comfort, featuring a garden tub, double sinks, and ample space to unwind at the end of the day. Add some love and care to make it your own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $133
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$32
• After-tax cash flow: $2,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with some minor repairs and maintenance needed. Painting and landscaping can significantly improve its curb appeal and overall appearance.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Painting — The paint on the interior walls and exterior siding appears to be in fair condition with some wear.
• Minor Landscaping — The landscaping is simple and could be improved to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the interior and exterior — Painting can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and overall appearance, making it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Resale Landscaping — Landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Both Updating the kitchen and bathrooms — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can improve the home's functionality and appearance, making it more attractive to both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Painting · The paint on the interior walls and exterior siding appears to be in fair condition with some wear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · The landscaping is simple and could be improved to enhance curb appeal.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the interior and exterior — Painting can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and overall appearance, making it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Landscaping — Landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen and bathrooms — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can improve the home's functionality and appearance, making it more attractive to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Haywood County
• NCES district ID: 4701770
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $34,095
• Composite: 5.6/100
• National rank: #10024
• State rank: #137 of 139 in TN

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #374
• US rank: #23967

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 13,079
• Population (ZIP): 13,079

Population outlook (Haywood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,649 people
• By 2030: 15,733 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 13,718 · -17.6%
• By 2050: 11,876 · -28.7%
• By 2075: 8,673 · -47.9%
• By 2100: 7,001 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Haywood

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 21.3pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+10.2 2012: D+21.2 2008: D+21.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.81%
• Current HPI: 224.2645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-16.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $130,000 CWTAR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $150,000 CWTAR
• 2026-02-26 Listed $155,000 CWTAR