4350 Quail Creek Rd

Martinez, GA 30907

$239,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,983 sqft · Built 1979 · Other · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,832/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$278
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-83/mo
• Annual: $-1,001/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (23.3% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#23 in GA, #3,514 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Brookwood Elementary School (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #323 of 1,228 statewide, top 26%, 696 students, 52% FRL); Evans Middle School (math 36% / reading 51%, grade D, #114 of 470 statewide, top 24%, 980 students, 34% FRL); Evans High School (math 12% / reading 31%, grade F, #218 of 424 statewide, top 53%, 1,887 students, 30% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Columbia County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $239k implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Martinez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.