3427 Middle Rd

Waterville, ME 04330

$379,000B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,004 sqft · Built 1850 · MultiFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,911/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax + insurance: −$398
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$821
• Net cashflow: $705/mo
• Annual: $8,454/yr
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.97%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $106,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath multifamily listed at $379k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $705 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $379k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $368k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#34 in ME, #3,498 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• RSU 18 (rural): math 88% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #36 of 112 in ME (top 32%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 54 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $289k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $106k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $3,911/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 760% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.