609 Arbor Cir #609

Lakemoor, IL 60051

$259,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,081/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax + insurance: −$432
• HOA: −$220
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-366/mo
• Annual: $-4,386/yr
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.05%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $72,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $259k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#317 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mchenry Chsd 156 (suburban): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #244 of 620 in IL (top 39%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,595 units permitted in McHenry County in 2024 (485 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McHenry County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.