609 Arbor Cir #609 · Lakemoor, IL 60051

$259,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · Condo · 50 Days on market

Built 2007 $220/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully refreshed 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in the heart of Lakemoor! From the moment you step inside, you'll notice the fresh, modern feel-featuring newly painted interiors, all-new lighting, and warm bamboo flooring that flows seamlessly throughout the main living spaces. The updated bathrooms bring a stylish, contemporary touch, while the functional layout offers comfort and versatility for everyday living. The spacious living room opens directly to a stunning outdoor deck-perfect for morning coffee, summer entertaining, or simply unwinding while enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage, in-unit washer and dryer, and thoughtful upd

Key facts

• $220 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: The Glen at Lakemoor Farms; Located in Lakemoor, McHenry Township
• Financial info: Special service area: yes
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $220; Association covers insurance, exterior maintenance, lawn care, and snow removal; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (garage owned) with garage door opener; Asphalt driveway/parking; Total 2 parking spaces (2 garage spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Attached single condo; Entry level: 1; Part of a 4-unit building; Built roughly 16–20 years ago
• Construction: Vinyl siding and brick exterior; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Porch; Common lot/grounds; School bus service

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen with solid surface counters and pantry; Eating area / table space; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on second level (includes full bath); Second bedroom on second level with blinds and curtains/drapes; Additional bedroom(s) noted
• Flooring: Hardwood; Bamboo in living area; Laminate in kitchen; Carpet in bedrooms and closets; Linoleum in laundry
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Separate shower, double sink, soaking tub
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Open floorplan; Drapes on windows; Ceiling fan(s); Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry with washer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#317 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mchenry Chsd 156 (suburban): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #244 of 620 in IL (top 39%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,595 units permitted in McHenry County in 2024 (485 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• McHenry County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $206,108 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.05%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $117,945
• Equity at exit: $233,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $365,966
• Equity at exit: $503,180

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60051

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$220
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,544

Max offer price $206,108

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
241 S Highland Dr Lakemoor, IL	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	15d	1	0.86mi
450 Sullivan Lake Blvd Lakemoor, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1009	$2,300	$2.28	1d	17	1.15mi
32415 N Mackinac Ln #1 McHenry, IL	2.0	2.5	1416	$2,295	$1.62	10d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $220 · $2,640/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $259,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Contingent - Continue to Show 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Contingent - Continue to Show 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,000 Contingent - Continue to Show 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,000 Contingent - Continue to Show 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Contingent - Continue to Show 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Contingent - Continue to Show 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Contingent - Continue to Show 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Contingent - Continue to Show 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $259,000 Active
17. 2007-08-11
    historical
18. 2007-06-05
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$3,885
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − HOA: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$8,881
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,132
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mchenry Chsd 156
• NCES district ID: 1725320
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $66,681
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7188
• State rank: #244 of 620 in IL

Livability — Lakemoor

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #6294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakemoor, IL
• Population (ZIP): 23,931

Population outlook (McHenry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 305,342 people
• By 2030: 301,491 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 288,211 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 268,430 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 226,209 · -25.9%
• By 2100: 181,247 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McHenry

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.3) · D 46.6% · R 51.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -5.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.3 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+8.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.50%
• Current HPI: 612.07
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $259,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-11 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-05 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid