11389 Lee

Adelanto, CA 92301

$439,900B+

12 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,736 sqft · Built 1956 · MultiFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,037/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$641
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,268
• Net cashflow: $1,821/mo
• Annual: $21,852/yr
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.74%
• DSCR: 1.79
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $123,172

Investor read

• This is a 1×3.0bd/1.0ba + 3×1.0bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive. Per door: $455/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $440k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($433k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $433k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,250 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Victor Valley Union High (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #407 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gus Franklin Jr. (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 549 students, 63% FRL); Mesa Linda Middle (775 students, 77% FRL); Adelanto High (2,223 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 631 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 23 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $123k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.2% in Adelanto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.