22030 Rayvan Ln

Kiln, MS 39556

$149,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,423/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $233/mo
• Annual: $2,797/yr
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.66%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (5.0% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#69 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hancock County School District (rural): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #23 of 130 in MS (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 248 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hancock County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.4% in Kiln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.