22030 Rayvan Ln · Kiln, MS 39556

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2008 7,405 sqft lot Est $161k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 22030 Rayvan Lane in Kiln, Mississippi--where peaceful country living meets everyday convenience. This well-maintained home offers a spacious layout with comfortable living areas, perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. Situated on a generous lot, you'll enjoy privacy, room to roam, and the charm of coastal Mississippi living. Inside, the home features 3 Bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, a functional floor plan, and plenty of natural light throughout. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and flows easily into the main living area. Step outside to enjoy the expansive yard--ideal for outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply unwinding in a quiet setting. Conveniently located just a

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Expansive yard
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.17 acres (77 x 99); Living area reported as 1,200 (source: public records)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Community water; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One level
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year source: owner)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.0% in Kiln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#69 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hancock County School District (rural): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #23 of 130 in MS (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 248 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hancock County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,348 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.66%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,460
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7039 Skylar Blvd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,170 (0%)	5mo	$162,000	$138	90
22020 Rayvan Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,170 (0%)	11mo	$140,000	$120	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,513
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $10,557
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39556

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $515/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $149,900 Active
3. 2021-10-01
   historical
4. 2018-07-19
   listed $96,000
5. 2008-05-30
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $515 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$669/yr (+$56/mo · 129.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$515
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,367
• − Management: −$1,367
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $327
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$78
• After-tax cash flow: $2,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hancock County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801740
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $47,971
• Composite: 38.88/100
• National rank: #4099
• State rank: #23 of 130 in MS

Livability — Kiln

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #9853

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,583
• Population (ZIP): 7,583

Population outlook (Hancock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,161 people
• By 2030: 54,753 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 59,242 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 62,417 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 68,168 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 69,212 · +32.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Hungarian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hancock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.7) · D 20.1% · R 78.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -58.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.7 2020: R+55.5 2016: R+59.4 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.52%
• Current HPI: 188.5373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+56.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-02 Listed $149,900 MLSU
• 2021-10-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2018-07-19 Listed $96,000 MLSU
• 2008-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $515 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.