1547 2nd Ave

Oroville, CA 95965

$425,000B-

30 bd · 25.0 ba · 3,424 sqft · Built 1959 · MultiFamily · Pending · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,785/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$703
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,215
• Net cashflow: $1,638/mo
• Annual: $19,656/yr
• Cap rate: 10.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.52%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 4×1bd/1.0ba + 1×2bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive. Per door: $328/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $425k).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $400k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,136 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D, cost of living D, crime F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $150k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $285k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $119k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.6% in Oroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,785/mo this rent would consume 130% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 892% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?