7934 Ashland Springs Ln

Houston, TX 77433

$269,000D

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,266 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 358 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,564/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$816
• HOA: −$35
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-236/mo
• Annual: $-2,831/yr
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.76%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (4.7% below list).
• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Andre El (math 31% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 988 students, 59% FRL); Hopper Middle (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 930 students, 80% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2065 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?