12988 Ox Bow Ln

Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$95,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,712/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$22
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $599/mo
• Annual: $7,185/yr
• Cap rate: 13.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.01%
• DSCR: 2.20
• 1% rule: 1.80%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Arrowpoint Elem. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 358 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 53% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 84% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 8.1% in Spanish Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.