12988 Ox Bow Ln · Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1977 8,999 sqft lot $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Generously sized, split level home with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths and a 2 car garage. Main level features Pergo laminate flooring in living and dining areas while bedrooms have carpet. Master suite. Partially finished basement. Private back yard with deck. Seller will provide no inspections or repairs. Being sold as-is. Earnest money for all offers must be at least 2% of purchase price.

Key facts

• 8,999 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,300 (assessor)
• HOA & community: Country Village HOA — $260 annually (covers common area maintenance); association reports no listed amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-and-one-half story
• Construction: Brick veneer, frame, and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Decorative living room fireplace; Forced air heating; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 8.1% in Spanish Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Arrowpoint Elem. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 358 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 53% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 84% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.19%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6803 Foxbend Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,300 (0%)	3mo	$245,000	$188	70
12807 Sunrise East Ct	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,230 (-5%)	1mo	$189,500	$154	64
6882 Foxbend Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-5%)	16mo	$173,000	$140	56
12897 Fox Haven Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,408 (+8%)	9mo	$259,900	$185	54
6862 Foxbend Ct	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,135 (-13%)	6mo	$165,000	$145	47
12884 Fox Haven Dr	0.36mi	3/3.0	1,408 (+8%)	23mo	$155,000	$110	46
12927 Fox Haven Dr	0.41mi	3/3.5	1,398 (+8%)	21mo	$270,000	$193	45
6666 Foothills Ct	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,366 (+5%)	14mo	$261,900	$192	40
1622 Countrybrook Ct	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,251 (-4%)	19mo	$249,999	$200	39
12780 Coachlight Square Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,377 (+6%)	23mo	$205,000	$149	34
12631 Treeyard Ln	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-14%)	16mo	$201,000	$179	32
1767 Edgebriar Ln	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,443 (+11%)	22mo	$214,900	$149	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $18,044
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $46,040
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63138

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,717 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,329/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $656	-5% $630	+0% $603	+5% $576	+10% $549
Rent	-10% $467	-5% $535	+0% $603	+5% $671	+10% $738
Rate	-1.0pp $651	-0.5pp $627	base $603	+0.5pp $578	+1.0pp $553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12887 Fox Haven Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	0.39mi
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	44d	1	0.71mi
12303 Benham Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1845	$1,771	$0.96	18d	1	0.77mi
6431 Brown Fox Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1105	$1,905	$1.72	23d	1	0.98mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,325	$1.23	2d	3	1.43mi
1321 Dominica Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,400	$1.38	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $95,000 Pending 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 104 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 103 DOM
8. 2026-04-25
   price $95,000
9. 2026-02-22
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2026-02-22
    status Active
11. 2026-02-22
    price $27,900
12. 2026-02-17
    historical Active Under Contract
13. 2026-02-17
    listed $51,500 Active
14. 2026-01-15
    listed $159,900 Active
15. 2016-07-29
    soldstatus Closed 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Generously sized, split level home with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths and a 2 car garage. Main level features Pergo laminate flooring in living and dining areas while bedrooms have carpet. Master suite. Partially finished basement. Private back yard with deck. Seller will provide no inspections or repairs. Being sold as-is. Earnest money for all offers must be at least 2% of purchase price.

16. 2016-06-30
    status Pending 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Generously sized, split level home with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths and a 2 car garage. Main level features Pergo laminate flooring in living and dining areas while bedrooms have carpet. Master suite. Partially finished basement. Private back yard with deck. Seller will provide no inspections or repairs. Being sold as-is. Earnest money for all offers must be at least 2% of purchase price.

17. 2016-06-23
    listed $62,500 Active 388-char remark

    Show marketing remark (388 chars)

    Generously sized, split level home with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths and a 2 car garage. Main level features Pergo laminate flooring in living and dining areas while bedrooms have carpet. Master suite. Partially finished basement. Private back yard with deck. Seller will provide no inspections or repairs. Being sold as-is. Earnest money for all offers must be at least 2% of purchase price.

18. 1998-11-16
    soldstatus $88,888
19. 1996-07-03
    soldstatus $91,000
20. 1996-07-03
    soldstatus $91,000
21. 1983-07-01
    soldstatus $72,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,329 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,329 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$2,329
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,648
• − Management: −$1,648
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $6,156
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,477
• After-tax cash flow: $5,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanish Lake, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,233
• Household income: $56,096
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 925.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.09%
• Current HPI: 165.2146
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+30.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $95,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $27,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Listed $51,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $159,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-29 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-30 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-23 Listed $62,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $88,888 Public Records
• 1996-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 1983-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,329 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.