10239 Outlook Dr

Overland Park, KS 66207

$320,000D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,517/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$457
• HOA: −$22
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-169/mo
• Annual: $-2,029/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $89,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (21.3% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $252k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#16 in KS, #1,851 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Shawnee Mission Pub Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #22 of 169 in KS (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Trailwood Elem (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #40 of 684 statewide, top 6%, 444 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 29% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Shawnee Mission Pub Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,969 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (1,066 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Overland Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.