5007 Carlos Rd

Catawba, NC 28609

$299,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,405 sqft · Built 2021 · Other · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-319/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-319/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#494 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Catawba County Schools (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #54 of 178 in NC (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oxford Elementary (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #746 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 588 students, 69% FRL); Bunker Hill High (math 52% / reading 61%, grade C, #261 of 535 statewide, top 49%, 828 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 43% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,016 units permitted in Catawba County in 2024 (255 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Catawba County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $299k implies a 1829% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Catawba — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.