58 Co Rd 6009 --

St. Johns, AZ 85936

$159,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Built 2013 · Manufactured · Pending · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,254/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-108/mo
• Annual: $-1,297/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.91%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (21.1% below list).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St Johns Unified District (4153) (town): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #34 of 249 in AZ (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Coronado Elementary School (math 74% / reading 64%, grade A-, #59 of 1,109 statewide, top 6%, 290 students, 51% FRL); St Johns Middle School (math 63% / reading 53%, grade B, #5 of 218 statewide, top 2%, 340 students, 44% FRL); St Johns High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #72 of 381 statewide, top 20%, 317 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Apache County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Apache County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $159k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.8% in St. Johns — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.