2672 Falcons Way #54

St. Charles, MO 63303

$185,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,694 sqft · Built 1975 · Condo · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,824/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$395
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-150/mo
• Annual: $-1,805/yr
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (1.4% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $158k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Charles R-VI (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #51 of 324 in MO (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in St. Charles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.