2672 Falcons Way #54 · St. Charles, MO 63303

$185,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,694 sqft · Condo public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1975 $395/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

For Comp purposes only

Key facts

• $395 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: Hawks Nest Condominiums; Monthly association fee of $395; Association amenities include pool and common grounds; HOA fee covers exterior maintenance, roof, pool maintenance, common area maintenance, grounds maintenance, parking/road maintenance, sewer, water, trash, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Detached carport (1 car) — total parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service provided by Ameren; Electricity and natural gas connected
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; Private ownership
• Construction: Fiberglass siding
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Community inground pool (private to the association)

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Cooktop (electric); Electric oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Partially finished basement with exterior entry and walk-out access; Basement includes a bathroom and 8 ft+ poured walls; One fireplace with insert and blower fan (serving living room and basement)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in St. Charles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Charles R-VI (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #51 of 324 in MO (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,427 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-38,842
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-43,217
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63303

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,824 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,790/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$395
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,014

Max offer price $158,427

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-98	+0% $-150	+5% $-203	+10% $-255
Rent	-10% $-295	-5% $-222	+0% $-150	+5% $-78	+10% $-6
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-103	base $-150	+0.5pp $-198	+1.0pp $-247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2483 Falcons Way Saint Charles, MO	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,400	$1.33	45d	1	0.18mi
2200 Lake Ct St Charles, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,749	$2.03	0d	15	0.45mi
3405 Sherman Park Dr St Charles, MO	2.0	2.5	1600	$2,195	$1.37	3d	1	0.66mi
2000 Sherman Square Dr St Charles, MO	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,612	$1.48	3d	3	0.66mi
1400 Aberdeen Ct Saint Charles, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,985	$2.09	0d	25	0.68mi
820 Saint Charles Ave Saint Charles, MO	4.0	2.0	1288	$1,800	$1.40	45d	1	1.02mi
1517 Shadow Wood Dr Saint Charles, MO	3.0	2.0	1064	$2,250	$2.11	12d	1	1.05mi
2717 Greenleaf Dr Saint Charles, MO	3.0	2.0	1189	$2,329	$1.96	0d	1	1.28mi
10 San Miguel Dr St Charles, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	897	$1,926	$2.15	0d	13	1.29mi
317 S Pam Ave Saint Charles, MO	4.0	2.5	1880	$2,484	$1.32	45d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $395 · $4,740/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 1231-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $185,000 Active 1231-char remark
3. 2026-04-30
   historical $185,000 1231-char remark
4. 2021-03-26
   soldstatus $155,500
5. 2021-03-25
   soldstatus Closed 22-char remark

   Show marketing remark (22 chars)

   For Comp purposes only

6. 2021-03-19
   status Pending 22-char remark

   Show marketing remark (22 chars)

   For Comp purposes only

7. 2021-02-25
   listed $155,500 22-char remark

   Show marketing remark (22 chars)

   For Comp purposes only

8. 2020-11-04
   soldstatus $105,000
9. 2020-09-28
   price $115,000
10. 2001-01-24
    soldstatus $52,000
11. 1994-07-01
    soldstatus $51,900
12. 1984-07-01
    soldstatus $45,000
13. 1982-01-01
    soldstatus $30,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,790 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,794 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$5/yr ($0/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,790
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,751
• − Management: −$1,751
• − HOA: −$4,740
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$4,813
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,155
• After-tax cash flow: $-650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Charles R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2928920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,897
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3486
• State rank: #51 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Charles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Charles, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 46,089
• Household income: $99,138
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1026.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 6% Asian 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.84%
• Current HPI: 224.7406
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+506.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $185,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Coming Soon $185,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $155,500 Public Records
• 2021-03-25 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-25 Listed $155,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-28 Price Changed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1994-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,900 Public Records
• 1984-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1982-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,790 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.