129 Chestnut Dr

Middleburg, NC 27589

$200,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,611/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $100/mo
• Annual: $1,199/yr
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.14%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (19.5% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $161k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 37/100 on livability (#737 in NC) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Warren County Schools (rural): math 11% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #174 of 178 in NC (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mariam Boyd Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,405 of 1,410 statewide, top 100%, 341 students, 99% FRL); Warren County High (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #488 of 535 statewide, top 91%, 384 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 79% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 255 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $200k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.