129 Chestnut Dr · Middleburg, NC 27589

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2002 1.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.9/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER UPPER * INVESTOR opportunity. A chance to bring your renovation talent to the table. While this will be a total rehab manufactured home project. This is also on a permanent foundation with public water connection. A septic tank already installed. Sits on 1.60 acres of partially cleared land. Close to HWY US 1 and HWY 85. Those looking to invest, renovate, and produce a potential income property to your portfolio inventory.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• New hvac unit
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW VINYL SIDING
• NEW HVAC UNIT
• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Security: Smart lock(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built as a manufactured house
• Exterior features: Smart locks; Storage; Private maintained road (gravel)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (electric, heat pump); Central air (electric, heat pump)
• Interior features: Bathtub/shower combination; Walk-in shower; Double vanity; Bookcases; Smooth ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 37/100 on livability (#737 in NC) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Warren County Schools (rural): math 11% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #174 of 178 in NC (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mariam Boyd Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,405 of 1,410 statewide, top 100%, 341 students, 99% FRL); Warren County High (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #488 of 535 statewide, top 91%, 384 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 79% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 255 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $200k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,068 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.14%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $110,313
• Equity at exit: $174,991

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $318,421
• Equity at exit: $371,992

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27589

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,611 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $484/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $157	+0% $100	+5% $43	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-27	-5% $36	+0% $100	+5% $164	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $151	base $100	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $-5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $200,000 Active
3. 2026-01-12
   soldstatus $51,000 Sold 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   FIXER UPPER * INVESTOR opportunity. A chance to bring your renovation talent to the table. While this will be a total rehab manufactured home project. This is also on a permanent foundation with public water connection. A septic tank already installed. Sits on 1.60 acres of partially cleared land. Close to HWY US 1 and HWY 85. Those looking to invest, renovate, and produce a potential income property to your portfolio inventory.

4. 2026-01-12
   soldstatus $51,000

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   FIXER UPPER * INVESTOR opportunity. A chance to bring your renovation talent to the table. While this will be a total rehab manufactured home project. This is also on a permanent foundation with public water connection. A septic tank already installed. Sits on 1.60 acres of partially cleared land. Close to HWY US 1 and HWY 85. Those looking to invest, renovate, and produce a potential income property to your portfolio inventory.

5. 2025-12-22
   status Pending 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   FIXER UPPER * INVESTOR opportunity. A chance to bring your renovation talent to the table. While this will be a total rehab manufactured home project. This is also on a permanent foundation with public water connection. A septic tank already installed. Sits on 1.60 acres of partially cleared land. Close to HWY US 1 and HWY 85. Those looking to invest, renovate, and produce a potential income property to your portfolio inventory.

6. 2025-12-21
   listed $45,000 Active 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   FIXER UPPER * INVESTOR opportunity. A chance to bring your renovation talent to the table. While this will be a total rehab manufactured home project. This is also on a permanent foundation with public water connection. A septic tank already installed. Sits on 1.60 acres of partially cleared land. Close to HWY US 1 and HWY 85. Those looking to invest, renovate, and produce a potential income property to your portfolio inventory.

7. 2019-03-27
   soldstatus $19,000 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   This is an extremely rare find in this price range. Large lot with fenced front and back yards. Conveniently located between Warrenton and Henderson so good access to schools, shopping, highways, etc. Good sq ft for the money. Call Today!!! Property owned by US Dept of HUD Case#381-668228 UI. Sold "AS-IS". EHO. Subject to appraisal. Seller makes no representation or warranties as to property condition. Seller may contribute up to 3% for buyer closing costs, upon buyer request. "Accepted Bid"

8. 2019-03-27
   soldstatus $19,000 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   This is an extremely rare find in this price range. Large lot with fenced front and back yards. Conveniently located between Warrenton and Henderson so good access to schools, shopping, highways, etc. Good sq ft for the money. Call Today!!! Property owned by US Dept of HUD Case#381-668228 UI. Sold "AS-IS". EHO. Subject to appraisal. Seller makes no representation or warranties as to property condition. Seller may contribute up to 3% for buyer closing costs, upon buyer request. "Accepted Bid"

9. 2019-02-12
   listed $19,000 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   This is an extremely rare find in this price range. Large lot with fenced front and back yards. Conveniently located between Warrenton and Henderson so good access to schools, shopping, highways, etc. Good sq ft for the money. Call Today!!! Property owned by US Dept of HUD Case#381-668228 UI. Sold "AS-IS". EHO. Subject to appraisal. Seller makes no representation or warranties as to property condition. Seller may contribute up to 3% for buyer closing costs, upon buyer request. "Accepted Bid"

10. 2019-02-12
    listed $19,000 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    This is an extremely rare find in this price range. Large lot with fenced front and back yards. Conveniently located between Warrenton and Henderson so good access to schools, shopping, highways, etc. Good sq ft for the money. Call Today!!! Property owned by US Dept of HUD Case#381-668228 UI. Sold "AS-IS". EHO. Subject to appraisal. Seller makes no representation or warranties as to property condition. Seller may contribute up to 3% for buyer closing costs, upon buyer request. "Accepted Bid"

11. 2002-10-01
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,156/yr (+$96/mo · 238.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 42% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$484
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,546
• − Management: −$1,546
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,270
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$545
• After-tax cash flow: $1,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704740
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,433
• Composite: 14.62/100
• National rank: #9409
• State rank: #174 of 178 in NC

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 37/100
• State rank: #737
• US rank: #27598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,763

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,664 people
• By 2030: 17,641 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 15,442 · -17.3%
• By 2050: 13,634 · -27.0%
• By 2075: 10,523 · -43.6%
• By 2100: 7,777 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 27% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 58.8% · R 39.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 39.5pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+25.7 2016: D+33.2 2012: D+36.0 2008: D+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.64%
• Current HPI: 303.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+700.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $200,000 TMLS
• 2026-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-12 Sold (MLS) $51,000 TMLS
• 2025-12-22 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-12-21 Listed $45,000 TMLS
• 2019-03-27 Sold (MLS) $19,000 AMLSNC
• 2019-03-27 Sold (MLS) $19,000 TMLS
• 2019-02-12 Listed $19,000 AMLSNC
• 2019-02-12 Listed $19,000 TMLS
• 2002-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $484 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.