4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,259 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 87 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,188/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,735
Tax + insurance
−$552
HOA
−$47
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$460
Net cashflow
$-605/mo
Annual
$-7,259/yr
Cap rate
4.10%
Cash-on-cash
-7.83%
DSCR
0.65
1% rule
0.66%
Cash to close
$92,652
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $331k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-605 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (26.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (33.9% below list).
It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $219k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#161 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, health & safety D.
Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Hahira Elementary School (math 72% / reading 55%, grade B, #99 of 1,228 statewide, top 8%, 807 students, 40% FRL); Hahira Middle School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B+, #30 of 470 statewide, top 6%, 859 students, 32% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YJ88W80PZXJQ9J
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29