6201 Holmes Blvd

Holmes Beach, FL 34217

$1,440,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,822 sqft · Built 1968 · Other · Active · 184 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,552
• Tax + insurance: −$1,787
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $142/mo
• Annual: $1,702/yr
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.69%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $403,200

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $1.44M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.20M (16.7% below list).
• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.27M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.20M (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $43k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#522 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anna Maria Elementary School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 190 students, 36% FRL); Martha B. King Middle School (math 48% / reading 39%, grade D, #329 of 571 statewide, top 58%, 848 students, 63% FRL); Manatee High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,983 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 328 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 20 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.7% in Holmes Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.