6201 Holmes Blvd · Holmes Beach, FL 34217

$1,440,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,822 sqft · Other public records · 184 Days on market

Built 1968 7,980 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INCREDIBLE VALUE! 5 BEDROOM HOME ON ANNA MARIA ISLAND WITH PROVEN RENTAL HISTORY- THIS IS THE ONE!!! Imagine owning a place where every day feels like a vacation. Located on a peaceful corner lot in the heart of Holmes Beach, this spacious 5-bedroom pool home offers the perfect balance of relaxed island living and modern comfort—just steps from everything that makes this island so special. Designed for connection and comfort, the home features an airy, open layout filled with natural light and coastal character. The kitchen anchors the space with recent updates, stainless steel appliances, and generous prep areas, making it ideal for hosting family and friends after long beach days. S

Key facts

• Side courtyard
• Sun drenched pool
• Expansive patio

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR RETREAT
• SUN DRENCHED POOL
• EXPANSIVE PATIO
• SIDE COURTYARD
• UPDATED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey / furnished; Zoning: R2
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; No water source listed; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Sewer available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Block construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.18-acre lot (approx. 101 x 79)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Private heated in-ground gunite pool with lighting; Irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone countertops; Solid wood cabinets
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom layout; Stone countertops; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $1.44M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.20M (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.20M (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.7% in Holmes Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#522 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anna Maria Elementary School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 190 students, 36% FRL); Martha B. King Middle School (math 48% / reading 39%, grade D, #329 of 571 statewide, top 58%, 848 students, 63% FRL); Manatee High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,983 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 328 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $43k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.27M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 20 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,200,000 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.69%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-224,503
• Equity at exit: $214,709

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-184,656
• Equity at exit: $124,505

Cash invested: $403,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34217

• Active inventory: 328
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,552
• Tax from tax record: −$760 /mo · $9,121/yr
• Insurance: −$600
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,820

Max offer price $1,440,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $957	-5% $549	+0% $142	+5% $-266	+10% $-673
Rent	-10% $-806	-5% $-332	+0% $142	+5% $616	+10% $1,090
Rate	-1.0pp $867	-0.5pp $508	base $142	+0.5pp $-231	+1.0pp $-611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $360,000
• Closing costs: $43,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 Concord Ln Holmes Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	1625	$12,000	$7.38	25d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $1,440,000 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,440,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,440,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,440,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,440,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,440,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,440,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,440,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,440,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,440,000 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,440,000 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,440,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,440,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,440,000 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,440,000 Active 163 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $1,440,000
17. 2026-04-02
    price $1,450,000
18. 2025-12-19
    listed $1,540,000 Active
19. 2025-10-08
    price $1,590,000
20. 2025-10-08
    historical
21. 2025-10-07
    status Active
22. 2025-09-05
    historical
23. 2025-08-04
    status Active
24. 2025-08-02
    historical
25. 2025-06-08
    price $1,490,000
26. 2025-05-18
    price $1,590,000
27. 2025-02-21
    listed $1,695,000 Active
28. 2024-07-27
    price $1,650,000
29. 2024-07-22
    historical
30. 2024-05-17
    price $1,550,000
31. 2024-03-25
    price $1,590,000
32. 2024-02-23
    price $1,685,000
33. 2023-10-08
    listed $1,695,000 Active
34. 2023-05-26
    soldstatus $1,500,000
35. 2023-05-25
    soldstatus $1,500,000 Closed
36. 2023-04-04
    status Pending
37. 2023-03-30
    price $1,690,000
38. 2023-03-20
    price $1,720,000
39. 2023-03-09
    price $1,790,000
40. 2023-02-27
    price $1,845,000
41. 2023-02-16
    price $1,945,000
42. 2023-02-16
    price $1,949,000
43. 2023-01-04
    listed $1,995,000 Active
44. 2021-09-27
    soldstatus $1,395,000
45. 2021-09-24
    soldstatus $1,395,000 Closed
46. 2021-08-07
    status Pending
47. 2021-07-13
    price $1,405,000
48. 2021-06-28
    price $1,425,000
49. 2021-06-15
    price $1,445,000
50. 2021-06-13
    price $1,475,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,121 · $760/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,952 · $996/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,831/yr (+$236/mo · 31.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$80,662
• − Property taxes: −$9,121
• − Insurance: −$12,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,520
• − Management: −$11,520
• − Depreciation: −$41,891
• Taxable loss: −$23,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,528
• After-tax cash flow: $7,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holmes Beach

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #522
• US rank: #9627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holmes Beach, FL
• City population: 3,774
• Population (ZIP): 3,774

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.53%
• Current HPI: 377.6715
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+336.4% since first listed

66 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $1,440,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $1,450,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listed $1,540,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $1,590,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-08 Price Changed $1,490,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-18 Price Changed $1,590,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Listed $1,695,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-27 Price Changed $1,650,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-17 Price Changed $1,550,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $1,590,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-23 Price Changed $1,685,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-08 Listed $1,695,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $1,500,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-25 Sold (MLS) $1,500,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-30 Price Changed $1,690,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-20 Price Changed $1,720,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-09 Price Changed $1,790,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-27 Price Changed $1,845,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-16 Price Changed $1,945,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-16 Price Changed $1,949,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-04 Listed $1,995,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $1,395,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-24 Sold (MLS) $1,395,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-13 Price Changed $1,405,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-28 Price Changed $1,425,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-15 Price Changed $1,445,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-13 Price Changed $1,475,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-07 Price Changed $1,495,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-30 Price Changed $1,595,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-14 Listed $1,695,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-22 Listed $1,075,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $675,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-05 Sold (MLS) $675,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-27 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-14 Listed $699,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-30 Listed $749,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $600,000 Public Records
• 2012-10-25 Listed $619,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-25 Sold (MLS) $600,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-07 Listed $599,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $460,000 Public Records
• 2010-01-29 Sold (MLS) $460,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-01 Listed $599,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-01 Listed $497,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $670,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-09 Listed $950,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-09 Listed $950,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-03 Listed $795,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-03 Listed $795,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-01 Listed $795,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-01 Listed $795,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,121 · -52.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.