2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
874 sqft ·
Built 1974
· Condo
· Active
· 113 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,556/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,516
Tax + insurance
−$429
HOA
−$900
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$957
Net cashflow
$755/mo
Annual
$9,056/yr
Cap rate
9.70%
Cash-on-cash
12.18%
DSCR
1.54
1% rule
1.58%
Cash to close
$80,920
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $289k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $755 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $289k).
It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $263k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Sea Gate Elementary School (math 86% / reading 81%, grade A+, #60 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 703 students, 26% FRL); Gulfview Middle School (math 78% / reading 68%, grade A, #44 of 571 statewide, top 8%, 582 students, 40% FRL); Naples High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,719 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 55% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $225k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $4,556/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($117k/yr) (locally 311% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
CashFlowRE · CFR-YJB4XE45VDHKZE
· Data 13 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29