452 Carvel Bch

Riviera Beach, MD 21226

$675,000F

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,112 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,007/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax + insurance: −$612
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $-1,776/mo
• Annual: $-21,311/yr
• Cap rate: 3.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.28%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $189,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $675k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $361k (46.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (55.4% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($655k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $301k (55.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#280 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Monarch Global Academy Pcs Laurel Campus (math 13% / reading 28%, grade F, #341 of 860 statewide, top 40%, 830 students, 53% FRL); Northeast Middle (math 6% / reading 32%, grade F, #155 of 225 statewide, top 70%, 882 students, 49% FRL); Northeast High (math 24% / reading 57%, grade F, #130 of 222 statewide, top 58%, 1,390 students, 44% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $675k implies a 187% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 5.7% in Riviera Beach — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.