4051 N Main St

Pavo, GA 31778

$99,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,287/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $416/mo
• Annual: $4,996/yr
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.86%
• DSCR: 1.79
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#407 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime D-.
• Thomas County (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #97 of 174 in GA (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Thomas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Thomas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.