4051 N Main St · Pavo, GA 31778

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1993 2.05 ac lot ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2.05 acres with a mobile home offering plenty of potential. The home needs some work but has a good layout, including a living room with a fireplace, a separate family room, and a good-sized kitchen. Metal roof already in place. Great opportunity to make it your own or invest.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Kitchen
• Living room

Tags

• LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• FAMILY ROOM
• KITCHEN
• METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is residential single family; Approximately 2.05-acre lot

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Detached parking
• Utilities: Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Parquet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#407 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime D-.
• Thomas County (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #97 of 174 in GA (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Thomas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Thomas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.86%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $56,518
• Equity at exit: $64,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $145,104
• Equity at exit: $117,300

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31778

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,287 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $414/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $759

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $473	-5% $445	+0% $416	+5% $388	+10% $360
Rent	-10% $315	-5% $366	+0% $416	+5% $467	+10% $518
Rate	-1.0pp $467	-0.5pp $442	base $416	+0.5pp $390	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (277 chars)

   2.05 acres with a mobile home offering plenty of potential. The home needs some work but has a good layout, including a living room with a fireplace, a separate family room, and a good-sized kitchen. Metal roof already in place. Great opportunity to make it your own or invest.

2. 2026-04-29
   status Pending 277-char remark

   Show marketing remark (277 chars)

   2.05 acres with a mobile home offering plenty of potential. The home needs some work but has a good layout, including a living room with a fireplace, a separate family room, and a good-sized kitchen. Metal roof already in place. Great opportunity to make it your own or invest.

3. 2026-04-23
   listed $99,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (277 chars)

   2.05 acres with a mobile home offering plenty of potential. The home needs some work but has a good layout, including a living room with a fireplace, a separate family room, and a good-sized kitchen. Metal roof already in place. Great opportunity to make it your own or invest.

4. 2026-04-23
   listed $99,900 Active 277-char remark

   Show marketing remark (277 chars)

   2.05 acres with a mobile home offering plenty of potential. The home needs some work but has a good layout, including a living room with a fireplace, a separate family room, and a good-sized kitchen. Metal roof already in place. Great opportunity to make it your own or invest.

5. 2019-04-19
   soldstatus $75,000 672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   Built in 1993, this Fleetwood home is affordable and ready for you and your family! Located on an oversized 2 acre lot in Pavo, this property has limitless potential! With a NEW roof, screened in porch, 3 bedrooms, and 2 full bathrooms, this home is practical with little wasted space. The kitchen is adorned with custom cabinets with abundance storage space. There is gorgeous wood work surrounding the wood burning fireplace in the family room. The family room & kitchen have been updated with bamboo hardwood flooring. The outside is perfect for relaxing and spending time making memories with the family in the spacious yard. Call today for your private viewing!

6. 2018-06-08
   listed $75,000 672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   Built in 1993, this Fleetwood home is affordable and ready for you and your family! Located on an oversized 2 acre lot in Pavo, this property has limitless potential! With a NEW roof, screened in porch, 3 bedrooms, and 2 full bathrooms, this home is practical with little wasted space. The kitchen is adorned with custom cabinets with abundance storage space. There is gorgeous wood work surrounding the wood burning fireplace in the family room. The family room & kitchen have been updated with bamboo hardwood flooring. The outside is perfect for relaxing and spending time making memories with the family in the spacious yard. Call today for your private viewing!

7. 2009-08-01
   soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $414 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$505/yr (+$42/mo · 122.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$414
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,235
• − Management: −$1,235
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,553
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$853
• After-tax cash flow: $4,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thomas County
• NCES district ID: 1304890
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,341
• Composite: 24.95/100
• National rank: #7565
• State rank: #97 of 174 in GA

Livability — Pavo

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #20195

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pavo, GA
• Population (ZIP): 2,632

Population outlook (Thomas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,303 people
• By 2030: 45,052 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 44,034 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,310 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 37,569 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 30,676 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 14% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thomas

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+21.8 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.20%
• Current HPI: 213.9436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-23.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — TABRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — MBOR
• 2026-04-23 Listed $99,900 TABRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $99,900 MBOR
• 2019-04-19 Sold (MLS) $75,000 TABRMLS
• 2018-06-08 Listed $75,000 TABRMLS
• 2009-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $414 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.