3219 Welsh St

Spring Hill, FL 34606

$218,888D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,004/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$536
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-101/mo
• Annual: $-1,217/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.99%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $61,289

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (8.5% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deltona Elementary School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade D, #1,182 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 843 students, 72% FRL); Fox Chapel Middle School (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 862 students, 69% FRL); Central High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 1,426 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $219k implies a 655% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.