3219 Welsh St · Spring Hill, FL 34606

$218,888

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Land · 39 Days on market

Built 2025 6,875 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready-to-Build Lot in Spring Hill, FL - Utilities in Place, Savings & Opportunity! Located in the sought-after Weeki Wachee Acres neighborhood Size: 0.15 acres (6,875 sq. ft. ) Zoning: R-1A Mobile Home / Residential Single Family Advantages that save you time and money Water well already drilled with piping installed - just needs a pump Septic system already in place - only requires service, maintenance, and activation. Electricity runs to the lot - simply request connection from the county. Covered concrete pad in great condition - perfect for parking now or as a base for future construction. Big savings compared to starting from scratch. Impact fees may be waived (confirm with county, since there was a structure on site previously). Semi- Clear Lot (saving you money on Land Prep) Nearby attractions: nature, adventure & everyday life Why Buy This Lot? All essential services already in place: well, septic, electricity, and covered pad. Huge savings on permits, installation, and infrastructure costs. Prime location in Florida's Adventure Coast - perfect mix of natural beauty, adventure, and convenience. Great option for building right away, setting up a mobile home, or holding as a smart investment. Lots with this many ready-to-activate features are rare in Spring Hill. Don't miss out -

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Pantry storage
• Split floor plan

Tags

• BRAND NEW
• NEVER LIVED IN
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PANTRY STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot: approximately 0.16 acres (68 x 100); Living area reported as 1,152 sq ft; Direction faces north; Property type: Residential — Manufactured Home; Zoning: RES
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; New construction; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding and other construction materials; Shingle roof; Built on a crawlspace; Completed condition
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Six total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deltona Elementary School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade D, #1,182 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 843 students, 72% FRL); Fox Chapel Middle School (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 862 students, 69% FRL); Central High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 1,426 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $219k implies a 655% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,357 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.99%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-47,665
• Equity at exit: $32,637

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-71,965
• Equity at exit: $18,925

Cash invested: $61,289 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34606

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,004 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$445 /mo · $5,342/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,132

Max offer price $200,970

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-39	+0% $-101	+5% $-163	+10% $-225
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-181	+0% $-101	+5% $-22	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-46	base $-101	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,722
• Closing costs: $6,567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3204 Painters St Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	749	$1,300	$1.74	13d	1	0.12mi
7369 Sealawn Dr Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,500	$2.17	5d	1	0.18mi
7410 Cherokee Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,725	$1.44	14d	1	0.45mi
7272 Apache Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,650	$1.88	26d	1	0.48mi
7423 Mohawk Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,795	$1.61	19d	1	0.52mi
3191 Deltona Blvd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,815	$1.33	26d	1	0.66mi
4300 Bridgewater Club Loop Spring Hill, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1078	$1,484	$1.38	1d	13	1.16mi
8397 Coral St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,689	$1.41	4d	1	1.30mi
8513 Beach Rd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,990	$1.44	19d	1	1.38mi
2052 Deltona Blvd Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1345	$1,775	$1.32	23d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $218,888 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $218,888 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $218,888 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $218,888 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $218,888 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $218,888 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $218,888 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $218,888 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $218,888 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $218,888 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $258,888 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $258,888 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $258,888 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $258,888 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $258,888 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $258,888 Active
17. 2025-12-04
    soldstatus $29,000 Closed 1329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1329 chars)

    Ready-to-Build Lot in Spring Hill, FL - Utilities in Place, Savings & Opportunity! Located in the sought-after Weeki Wachee Acres neighborhood Size: 0.15 acres (6,875 sq. ft. ) Zoning: R-1A Mobile Home / Residential Single Family Advantages that save you time and money Water well already drilled with piping installed - just needs a pump Septic system already in place - only requires service, maintenance, and activation. Electricity runs to the lot - simply request connection from the county. Covered concrete pad in great condition - perfect for parking now or as a base for future construction. Big savings compared to starting from scratch. Impact fees may be waived (confirm with county, since there was a structure on site previously). Semi- Clear Lot (saving you money on Land Prep) Nearby attractions: nature, adventure & everyday life Why Buy This Lot? All essential services already in place: well, septic, electricity, and covered pad. Huge savings on permits, installation, and infrastructure costs. Prime location in Florida's Adventure Coast - perfect mix of natural beauty, adventure, and convenience. Great option for building right away, setting up a mobile home, or holding as a smart investment. Lots with this many ready-to-activate features are rare in Spring Hill. Don't miss out -

18. 2025-11-12
    status Pending 1329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1329 chars)

    Ready-to-Build Lot in Spring Hill, FL - Utilities in Place, Savings & Opportunity! Located in the sought-after Weeki Wachee Acres neighborhood Size: 0.15 acres (6,875 sq. ft. ) Zoning: R-1A Mobile Home / Residential Single Family Advantages that save you time and money Water well already drilled with piping installed - just needs a pump Septic system already in place - only requires service, maintenance, and activation. Electricity runs to the lot - simply request connection from the county. Covered concrete pad in great condition - perfect for parking now or as a base for future construction. Big savings compared to starting from scratch. Impact fees may be waived (confirm with county, since there was a structure on site previously). Semi- Clear Lot (saving you money on Land Prep) Nearby attractions: nature, adventure & everyday life Why Buy This Lot? All essential services already in place: well, septic, electricity, and covered pad. Huge savings on permits, installation, and infrastructure costs. Prime location in Florida's Adventure Coast - perfect mix of natural beauty, adventure, and convenience. Great option for building right away, setting up a mobile home, or holding as a smart investment. Lots with this many ready-to-activate features are rare in Spring Hill. Don't miss out -

19. 2025-11-04
    price $32,500 1329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1329 chars)

    Ready-to-Build Lot in Spring Hill, FL - Utilities in Place, Savings & Opportunity! Located in the sought-after Weeki Wachee Acres neighborhood Size: 0.15 acres (6,875 sq. ft. ) Zoning: R-1A Mobile Home / Residential Single Family Advantages that save you time and money Water well already drilled with piping installed - just needs a pump Septic system already in place - only requires service, maintenance, and activation. Electricity runs to the lot - simply request connection from the county. Covered concrete pad in great condition - perfect for parking now or as a base for future construction. Big savings compared to starting from scratch. Impact fees may be waived (confirm with county, since there was a structure on site previously). Semi- Clear Lot (saving you money on Land Prep) Nearby attractions: nature, adventure & everyday life Why Buy This Lot? All essential services already in place: well, septic, electricity, and covered pad. Huge savings on permits, installation, and infrastructure costs. Prime location in Florida's Adventure Coast - perfect mix of natural beauty, adventure, and convenience. Great option for building right away, setting up a mobile home, or holding as a smart investment. Lots with this many ready-to-activate features are rare in Spring Hill. Don't miss out -

20. 2025-10-29
    status Active 1329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1329 chars)

    Ready-to-Build Lot in Spring Hill, FL - Utilities in Place, Savings & Opportunity! Located in the sought-after Weeki Wachee Acres neighborhood Size: 0.15 acres (6,875 sq. ft. ) Zoning: R-1A Mobile Home / Residential Single Family Advantages that save you time and money Water well already drilled with piping installed - just needs a pump Septic system already in place - only requires service, maintenance, and activation. Electricity runs to the lot - simply request connection from the county. Covered concrete pad in great condition - perfect for parking now or as a base for future construction. Big savings compared to starting from scratch. Impact fees may be waived (confirm with county, since there was a structure on site previously). Semi- Clear Lot (saving you money on Land Prep) Nearby attractions: nature, adventure & everyday life Why Buy This Lot? All essential services already in place: well, septic, electricity, and covered pad. Huge savings on permits, installation, and infrastructure costs. Prime location in Florida's Adventure Coast - perfect mix of natural beauty, adventure, and convenience. Great option for building right away, setting up a mobile home, or holding as a smart investment. Lots with this many ready-to-activate features are rare in Spring Hill. Don't miss out -

21. 2025-10-24
    status Pending 1329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1329 chars)

    Ready-to-Build Lot in Spring Hill, FL - Utilities in Place, Savings & Opportunity! Located in the sought-after Weeki Wachee Acres neighborhood Size: 0.15 acres (6,875 sq. ft. ) Zoning: R-1A Mobile Home / Residential Single Family Advantages that save you time and money Water well already drilled with piping installed - just needs a pump Septic system already in place - only requires service, maintenance, and activation. Electricity runs to the lot - simply request connection from the county. Covered concrete pad in great condition - perfect for parking now or as a base for future construction. Big savings compared to starting from scratch. Impact fees may be waived (confirm with county, since there was a structure on site previously). Semi- Clear Lot (saving you money on Land Prep) Nearby attractions: nature, adventure & everyday life Why Buy This Lot? All essential services already in place: well, septic, electricity, and covered pad. Huge savings on permits, installation, and infrastructure costs. Prime location in Florida's Adventure Coast - perfect mix of natural beauty, adventure, and convenience. Great option for building right away, setting up a mobile home, or holding as a smart investment. Lots with this many ready-to-activate features are rare in Spring Hill. Don't miss out -

22. 2025-10-10
    price $36,500 1329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1329 chars)

    Ready-to-Build Lot in Spring Hill, FL - Utilities in Place, Savings & Opportunity! Located in the sought-after Weeki Wachee Acres neighborhood Size: 0.15 acres (6,875 sq. ft. ) Zoning: R-1A Mobile Home / Residential Single Family Advantages that save you time and money Water well already drilled with piping installed - just needs a pump Septic system already in place - only requires service, maintenance, and activation. Electricity runs to the lot - simply request connection from the county. Covered concrete pad in great condition - perfect for parking now or as a base for future construction. Big savings compared to starting from scratch. Impact fees may be waived (confirm with county, since there was a structure on site previously). Semi- Clear Lot (saving you money on Land Prep) Nearby attractions: nature, adventure & everyday life Why Buy This Lot? All essential services already in place: well, septic, electricity, and covered pad. Huge savings on permits, installation, and infrastructure costs. Prime location in Florida's Adventure Coast - perfect mix of natural beauty, adventure, and convenience. Great option for building right away, setting up a mobile home, or holding as a smart investment. Lots with this many ready-to-activate features are rare in Spring Hill. Don't miss out -

23. 2025-09-19
    listed $37,900 Active 1329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1329 chars)

    Ready-to-Build Lot in Spring Hill, FL - Utilities in Place, Savings & Opportunity! Located in the sought-after Weeki Wachee Acres neighborhood Size: 0.15 acres (6,875 sq. ft. ) Zoning: R-1A Mobile Home / Residential Single Family Advantages that save you time and money Water well already drilled with piping installed - just needs a pump Septic system already in place - only requires service, maintenance, and activation. Electricity runs to the lot - simply request connection from the county. Covered concrete pad in great condition - perfect for parking now or as a base for future construction. Big savings compared to starting from scratch. Impact fees may be waived (confirm with county, since there was a structure on site previously). Semi- Clear Lot (saving you money on Land Prep) Nearby attractions: nature, adventure & everyday life Why Buy This Lot? All essential services already in place: well, septic, electricity, and covered pad. Huge savings on permits, installation, and infrastructure costs. Prime location in Florida's Adventure Coast - perfect mix of natural beauty, adventure, and convenience. Great option for building right away, setting up a mobile home, or holding as a smart investment. Lots with this many ready-to-activate features are rare in Spring Hill. Don't miss out -

24. 1990-05-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,342 · $445/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,342 · $445/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,261
• − Property taxes: −$5,342
• − Insurance: −$1,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,923
• − Management: −$1,923
• − Depreciation: −$6,368
• Taxable loss: −$4,869
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,169
• After-tax cash flow: $-49/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,668
• Household income: $57,337
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 733.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.11%
• Current HPI: 298.5201
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2488.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $258,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Sold (MLS) $29,000 HCAR
• 2025-11-12 Pending — HCAR
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $32,500 HCAR
• 2025-10-29 Relisted — HCAR
• 2025-10-24 Pending — HCAR
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $36,500 HCAR
• 2025-09-19 Listed $37,900 HCAR
• 1990-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,342 · +391.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.