138 N Third St

Harper, TX 78631

$238,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 336 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,003/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $93/mo
• Annual: $1,113/yr
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $66,640

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $238k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-72 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#849 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Harper ISD (rural): math 51% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #133 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $238k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.3% in Harper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.