138 N Third St · Harper, TX 78631

$238,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 336 Days on market

Built 2021 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a spacious lot in a serene Harper neighborhood. Built in 2021, this home features a wide-open floor plan, seamlessly connecting the living room to a large kitchen with a central island, ample cabinets, and included Kitchen appliances. Adjacent is a cozy breakfast area. The split floor plan places the primary bedroom on one side for privacy, with the other three bedrooms on the opposite side. Enjoy elegant flooring throughout. The expansive primary suite boasts an adjoining bathroom with a nice tub/shower, generous vanity with a makeup area, and a spacious walk-in closet. The additional bedrooms and their shared bathroom are well-appointed and inviting. This sizable home offers a comfortable and relaxing atmosphere. Outside has a large covered front deck. On the back side a two-car carport provides ample parking. On the other side is a workshop and storage building. A unique concrete structure on the property includes an additional room, perfect for a home office, gym, or studio, and an elevated space offering breathtaking views. This property is a must-see and will make someone an exceptional home!

Key facts

• Central island
• Cozy breakfast area
• Split floor plan

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• WIDE-OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• COZY BREAKFAST AREA
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.3% in Harper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#849 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Harper ISD (rural): math 51% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #133 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-72 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $238k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,272 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,461
• Equity at exit: $68,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $36,909
• Equity at exit: $82,351

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78631

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,003 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,706/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,885

Max offer price $238,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $238,000 Active 336 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,000 Active 335 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,000 Active 334 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,000 Active 333 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,000 Active 332 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $238,000 Active 330 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $238,000 Active 329 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,000 Active 326 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,000 Active 325 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $238,000 Active 324 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $238,000 Active 321 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,000 Active 320 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,000 Active 319 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,000 Active 318 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,000 Active 317 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $238,000 Active 316 DOM
17. 2025-08-19
    price $238,000 1155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1155 chars)

    Beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a spacious lot in a serene Harper neighborhood. Built in 2021, this home features a wide-open floor plan, seamlessly connecting the living room to a large kitchen with a central island, ample cabinets, and included Kitchen appliances. Adjacent is a cozy breakfast area. The split floor plan places the primary bedroom on one side for privacy, with the other three bedrooms on the opposite side. Enjoy elegant flooring throughout. The expansive primary suite boasts an adjoining bathroom with a nice tub/shower, generous vanity with a makeup area, and a spacious walk-in closet. The additional bedrooms and their shared bathroom are well-appointed and inviting. This sizable home offers a comfortable and relaxing atmosphere. Outside has a large covered front deck. On the back side a two-car carport provides ample parking. On the other side is a workshop and storage building. A unique concrete structure on the property includes an additional room, perfect for a home office, gym, or studio, and an elevated space offering breathtaking views. This property is a must-see and will make someone an exceptional home!

18. 2025-08-19
    price $238,000 1155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1155 chars)

    Beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a spacious lot in a serene Harper neighborhood. Built in 2021, this home features a wide-open floor plan, seamlessly connecting the living room to a large kitchen with a central island, ample cabinets, and included Kitchen appliances. Adjacent is a cozy breakfast area. The split floor plan places the primary bedroom on one side for privacy, with the other three bedrooms on the opposite side. Enjoy elegant flooring throughout. The expansive primary suite boasts an adjoining bathroom with a nice tub/shower, generous vanity with a makeup area, and a spacious walk-in closet. The additional bedrooms and their shared bathroom are well-appointed and inviting. This sizable home offers a comfortable and relaxing atmosphere. Outside has a large covered front deck. On the back side a two-car carport provides ample parking. On the other side is a workshop and storage building. A unique concrete structure on the property includes an additional room, perfect for a home office, gym, or studio, and an elevated space offering breathtaking views. This property is a must-see and will make someone an exceptional home!

19. 2025-08-19
    price $238,000

    Show marketing remark (1155 chars)

    Beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a spacious lot in a serene Harper neighborhood. Built in 2021, this home features a wide-open floor plan, seamlessly connecting the living room to a large kitchen with a central island, ample cabinets, and included Kitchen appliances. Adjacent is a cozy breakfast area. The split floor plan places the primary bedroom on one side for privacy, with the other three bedrooms on the opposite side. Enjoy elegant flooring throughout. The expansive primary suite boasts an adjoining bathroom with a nice tub/shower, generous vanity with a makeup area, and a spacious walk-in closet. The additional bedrooms and their shared bathroom are well-appointed and inviting. This sizable home offers a comfortable and relaxing atmosphere. Outside has a large covered front deck. On the back side a two-car carport provides ample parking. On the other side is a workshop and storage building. A unique concrete structure on the property includes an additional room, perfect for a home office, gym, or studio, and an elevated space offering breathtaking views. This property is a must-see and will make someone an exceptional home!

20. 2025-07-18
    listed $255,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1155 chars)

    Beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a spacious lot in a serene Harper neighborhood. Built in 2021, this home features a wide-open floor plan, seamlessly connecting the living room to a large kitchen with a central island, ample cabinets, and included Kitchen appliances. Adjacent is a cozy breakfast area. The split floor plan places the primary bedroom on one side for privacy, with the other three bedrooms on the opposite side. Enjoy elegant flooring throughout. The expansive primary suite boasts an adjoining bathroom with a nice tub/shower, generous vanity with a makeup area, and a spacious walk-in closet. The additional bedrooms and their shared bathroom are well-appointed and inviting. This sizable home offers a comfortable and relaxing atmosphere. Outside has a large covered front deck. On the back side a two-car carport provides ample parking. On the other side is a workshop and storage building. A unique concrete structure on the property includes an additional room, perfect for a home office, gym, or studio, and an elevated space offering breathtaking views. This property is a must-see and will make someone an exceptional home!

21. 2025-07-18
    listed $255,000 Active 1155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1155 chars)

    Beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a spacious lot in a serene Harper neighborhood. Built in 2021, this home features a wide-open floor plan, seamlessly connecting the living room to a large kitchen with a central island, ample cabinets, and included Kitchen appliances. Adjacent is a cozy breakfast area. The split floor plan places the primary bedroom on one side for privacy, with the other three bedrooms on the opposite side. Enjoy elegant flooring throughout. The expansive primary suite boasts an adjoining bathroom with a nice tub/shower, generous vanity with a makeup area, and a spacious walk-in closet. The additional bedrooms and their shared bathroom are well-appointed and inviting. This sizable home offers a comfortable and relaxing atmosphere. Outside has a large covered front deck. On the back side a two-car carport provides ample parking. On the other side is a workshop and storage building. A unique concrete structure on the property includes an additional room, perfect for a home office, gym, or studio, and an elevated space offering breathtaking views. This property is a must-see and will make someone an exceptional home!

22. 2025-07-17
    listed $255,000 Active 1155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1155 chars)

    Beautiful 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a spacious lot in a serene Harper neighborhood. Built in 2021, this home features a wide-open floor plan, seamlessly connecting the living room to a large kitchen with a central island, ample cabinets, and included Kitchen appliances. Adjacent is a cozy breakfast area. The split floor plan places the primary bedroom on one side for privacy, with the other three bedrooms on the opposite side. Enjoy elegant flooring throughout. The expansive primary suite boasts an adjoining bathroom with a nice tub/shower, generous vanity with a makeup area, and a spacious walk-in closet. The additional bedrooms and their shared bathroom are well-appointed and inviting. This sizable home offers a comfortable and relaxing atmosphere. Outside has a large covered front deck. On the back side a two-car carport provides ample parking. On the other side is a workshop and storage building. A unique concrete structure on the property includes an additional room, perfect for a home office, gym, or studio, and an elevated space offering breathtaking views. This property is a must-see and will make someone an exceptional home!

23. 2021-03-30
    soldstatus
24. 2018-05-30
    soldstatus
25. 2004-08-13
    soldstatus $86,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,706 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,355 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,649/yr (+$221/mo · 155.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$1,706
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,923
• − Management: −$1,923
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$2,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$711
• After-tax cash flow: $1,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822590
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,723
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2643
• State rank: #133 of 826 in TX

Livability — Harper

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #849
• US rank: #15317

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harper, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,357

Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ -0.03%
• Current HPI: 225.8858
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+176.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $238,000 KVMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $238,000 KVMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $238,000 CHCMLS
• 2025-07-18 Listed $255,000 CHCMLS
• 2025-07-18 Listed $255,000 KVMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $255,000 KVMLS
• 2021-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,706 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.