2944 Mill Creek Rd

Morehead City, NC 28570

$799,000B

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,834 sqft · Built 2009 · Other · Active · 153 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,495/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax + insurance: −$617
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,624
• Net cashflow: $5,051/mo
• Annual: $60,614/yr
• Cap rate: 13.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.45%
• DSCR: 2.22
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $223,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $799k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($61k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $799k).
• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($703k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $703k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#412 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing B; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newport Elementary (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #542 of 1,410 statewide, top 39%, 645 students, 100% FRL); Newport Middle (math 39% / reading 56%, grade C-, #140 of 475 statewide, top 30%, 378 students, 98% FRL); West Carteret High (math 82% / reading 71%, grade A-, #89 of 535 statewide, top 16%, 1,146 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 39% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $190k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $799k implies a 357% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 2.0% in Morehead City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.