2944 Mill Creek Rd · Morehead City, NC 28570

$799,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,834 sqft · Other public records · 153 Days on market

Built 2009 0.53 ac lot $13/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy Coastal North Carolina waterfront living at its finest. This custom-built 2009 home offers over 3,700 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space with sweeping waterfront views. The main level showcases a stunning great room with a dramatic 21-foot ceiling, built-ins, gas fireplace, and white oak flooring, flowing into the dining area framed by floor to ceiling windows that take advantage of the waterfront views. The well-appointed kitchen is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, with granite countertops, custom cabinetry, a large island, Dacor counter-depth refrigerator, Dacor 6-burner gas cooktop, double ovens, stainless steel range hood, pot filler, beverage coo

Key facts

• 0.53 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2009

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• Financial info: Tax amount not included per instructions
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (approximately $150/year); Community street lights

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3-car attached garage; Garage faces side; Concrete driveway/parking; Garage door opener
• Security: Generator for backup power
• Utilities: Well and public water available; Septic tank sewer; Generator (electric); Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Three or more levels (3 stories total); Entry on level 2; On waterfront with creek and waterfront access; River frontage; Level lot with wetlands; Irregular lot shape; Paved road access (city street and state road)
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Slab foundation; Built year not specified
• Exterior features: Outdoor shower; Private dock; Balcony; Covered deck; No fencing indicated; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Double oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Water softener
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms count not specified
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Accessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central air; Zoned cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Vaulted and high ceilings; Bookcases; Kitchen island; Ceiling fans; Pantry; Wet bar; Shutters and window coverings; Insulated windows; Gas-log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Washer hookup; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $799k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($61k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $799k).
• Recommended offer: $703k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 2.0% in Morehead City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#412 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing B; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newport Elementary (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #542 of 1,410 statewide, top 39%, 645 students, 100% FRL); Newport Middle (math 39% / reading 56%, grade C-, #140 of 475 statewide, top 30%, 378 students, 98% FRL); West Carteret High (math 82% / reading 71%, grade A-, #89 of 535 statewide, top 16%, 1,146 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 39% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($703k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $190k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $799k implies a 357% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $703,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.45%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $191,994
• Equity at exit: $119,133

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $580,450
• Equity at exit: $69,083

Cash invested: $223,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,606/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,624
• Net cashflow: $5,051

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,101

Max offer price $799,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,750
• Closing costs: $23,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $799,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $799,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $799,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $799,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $799,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $828,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $828,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $828,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $828,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $828,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $828,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $828,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $828,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $828,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $828,000 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $828,000 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $828,000 Active 133 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    price $828,000
19. 2026-04-15
    price $835,900
20. 2026-03-27
    price $848,800
21. 2026-03-14
    price $879,000
22. 2026-03-02
    price $928,900
23. 2026-01-17
    listed $989,000 Active
24. 2025-11-15
    historical
25. 2025-10-29
    price $989,000
26. 2025-09-25
    price $999,000
27. 2025-09-05
    listed $969,000 Active
28. 2025-07-10
    historical
29. 2025-06-27
    price $899,000
30. 2025-05-30
    price $929,000
31. 2025-05-16
    price $949,000
32. 2025-03-18
    price $999,990
33. 2025-02-22
    price $1,075,000
34. 2024-11-15
    price $1,175,000
35. 2024-09-06
    listed $1,250,000 Active
36. 2022-11-14
    historical
37. 2022-10-25
    price $860,000
38. 2022-10-06
    listed $874,500 Active
39. 2008-09-12
    soldstatus $175,000
40. 2008-09-12
    soldstatus $175,000
41. 2008-05-01
    listed $185,000
42. 2005-08-16
    soldstatus $162,750
43. 2005-04-29
    listed $169,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,606 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,552 · $546/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,946/yr (+$329/mo · 151.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $149,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,756
• − Property taxes: −$2,606
• − Insurance: −$4,792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,995
• − Management: −$11,995
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$23,244
• Taxable income: $50,391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12,094
• After-tax cash flow: $48,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

Livability — Morehead City

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #15497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime D- Employment D+ Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• City population: 15,253
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+388.5% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $828,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $835,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $848,800 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $879,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $928,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $989,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-15 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $989,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $999,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-09-05 Listed $969,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-07-10 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $899,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $929,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $949,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $999,990 Hive MLS
• 2025-02-22 Price Changed $1,075,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-11-15 Price Changed $1,175,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-09-06 Listed $1,250,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-11-14 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2022-10-25 Price Changed $860,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-10-06 Listed $874,500 Hive MLS
• 2008-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2008-09-12 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Hive MLS
• 2008-05-01 Listed $185,000 Hive MLS
• 2005-08-16 Sold (MLS) $162,750 Hive MLS
• 2005-04-29 Listed $169,500 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,606 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.