19708 E Montana Creek Rd

Susitna North, AK 99676

$158,200F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 824 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 243 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $964/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$830
• Tax + insurance: −$264
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $-332/mo
• Annual: $-3,984/yr
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.99%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $44,296

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-332 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (39.1% below list).
• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (39.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#128 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 1.7% in Susitna North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.