19708 E Montana Creek Rd · Susitna North, AK 99676

$158,200

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 824 sqft · Manufactured · 243 Days on market

Built 1999 9.22 ac lot ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Year round maintained road and near 10 acre developed parcel in beautiful Montana Creek! This 9.22 acre property is priced to sell and includes a manufactured home with build-on under a carport, totaling approximately 824 sq ft. The home is functional and can serve as temporary housing while you build your dream cabin/home site. Property Features a well, crib septic, driveway, and electric. Numerous outbuildings including a wood shed, tool shed, and greenhouse. The value is in the land and existing infrastructure. All the major groundwork has already been done. Homestead potential and excellent value in a desirable location. Grab your favorite local agent and come walk this beautiful lot today.

Key facts

• Wood shed
• Tool shed
• Manufactured home

Tags

• 10 ACRE PARCEL
• MANUFACTURED HOME
• NUMEROUS OUTBUILDINGS
• WOOD SHED
• TOOL SHED
• GREENHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-332 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (39.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (39.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 1.7% in Susitna North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#128 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $96,361 (39.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.99%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-15,885
• Equity at exit: $56,442

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,443
• Equity at exit: $76,926

Cash invested: $44,296 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99676

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$830
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$198 /mo · $2,373/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $-332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,384

Max offer price $110,154

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,550
• Closing costs: $4,746
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $158,200 Pending 243 DOM
2. 2026-04-04
   price $158,200 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Year round maintained road and near 10 acre developed parcel in beautiful Montana Creek! This 9.22 acre property is priced to sell and includes a manufactured home with build-on under a carport, totaling approximately 824 sq ft. The home is functional and can serve as temporary housing while you build your dream cabin/home site. Property Features a well, crib septic, driveway, and electric. Numerous outbuildings including a wood shed, tool shed, and greenhouse. The value is in the land and existing infrastructure. All the major groundwork has already been done. Homestead potential and excellent value in a desirable location. Grab your favorite local agent and come walk this beautiful lot today.

3. 2026-02-18
   status Active 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Year round maintained road and near 10 acre developed parcel in beautiful Montana Creek! This 9.22 acre property is priced to sell and includes a manufactured home with build-on under a carport, totaling approximately 824 sq ft. The home is functional and can serve as temporary housing while you build your dream cabin/home site. Property Features a well, crib septic, driveway, and electric. Numerous outbuildings including a wood shed, tool shed, and greenhouse. The value is in the land and existing infrastructure. All the major groundwork has already been done. Homestead potential and excellent value in a desirable location. Grab your favorite local agent and come walk this beautiful lot today.

4. 2026-02-18
   price $168,200 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Year round maintained road and near 10 acre developed parcel in beautiful Montana Creek! This 9.22 acre property is priced to sell and includes a manufactured home with build-on under a carport, totaling approximately 824 sq ft. The home is functional and can serve as temporary housing while you build your dream cabin/home site. Property Features a well, crib septic, driveway, and electric. Numerous outbuildings including a wood shed, tool shed, and greenhouse. The value is in the land and existing infrastructure. All the major groundwork has already been done. Homestead potential and excellent value in a desirable location. Grab your favorite local agent and come walk this beautiful lot today.

5. 2025-09-20
   listed $149,200 Active
6. 2025-09-03
   price $149,200 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Year round maintained road and near 10 acre developed parcel in beautiful Montana Creek! This 9.22 acre property is priced to sell and includes a manufactured home with build-on under a carport, totaling approximately 824 sq ft. The home is functional and can serve as temporary housing while you build your dream cabin/home site. Property Features a well, crib septic, driveway, and electric. Numerous outbuildings including a wood shed, tool shed, and greenhouse. The value is in the land and existing infrastructure. All the major groundwork has already been done. Homestead potential and excellent value in a desirable location. Grab your favorite local agent and come walk this beautiful lot today.

7. 2025-08-11
   listed $160,000 Active 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Year round maintained road and near 10 acre developed parcel in beautiful Montana Creek! This 9.22 acre property is priced to sell and includes a manufactured home with build-on under a carport, totaling approximately 824 sq ft. The home is functional and can serve as temporary housing while you build your dream cabin/home site. Property Features a well, crib septic, driveway, and electric. Numerous outbuildings including a wood shed, tool shed, and greenhouse. The value is in the land and existing infrastructure. All the major groundwork has already been done. Homestead potential and excellent value in a desirable location. Grab your favorite local agent and come walk this beautiful lot today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,862
• − Property taxes: −$2,373
• − Insurance: −$791
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$925
• − Management: −$925
• − Depreciation: −$4,602
• Taxable loss: −$6,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,660
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Susitna North

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #22801

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Susitna North, AK
• Population (ZIP): 1,754

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Current HPI: 182.0125
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $158,200 AKMLS
• 2026-02-18 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $168,200 AKMLS
• 2025-09-20 Listed $149,200 AKMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $149,200 AKMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $160,000 AKMLS