3638 Treelawn Dr

Toledo, OH 43614

$170,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,648 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 203 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,480/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$394
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-116/mo
• Annual: $-1,394/yr
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.93%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (12.9% below list).
• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Grove Patterson Academy Elementary School (math 47% / reading 66%, grade C+, #761 of 1,584 statewide, top 48%, 403 students, 38% FRL); Bowsher High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #596 of 781 statewide, top 76%, 1,240 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 72% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Toledo City average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $126k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 7.7% in Toledo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?