3638 Treelawn Dr · Toledo, OH 43614

$170,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 203 Days on market

Built 1962 9,800 sqft lot $103/sqft · 33% below area Est $252k · 33% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom with 1.5 baths. Great opportunity! Call today! This home features Living room, formal dining room, family room, and more. Extra's include enclosed patio, basement, and 2 car attached garage.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Living room
• Basement

Tags

• LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 7.7% in Toledo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Grove Patterson Academy Elementary School (math 47% / reading 66%, grade C+, #761 of 1,584 statewide, top 48%, 403 students, 38% FRL); Bowsher High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #596 of 781 statewide, top 76%, 1,240 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 72% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Toledo City average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $126k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $148,029 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.93%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,989
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -32.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1913 Sunnylawn Dr	0.07mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,680 (+2%)	2mo	$251,000	$149	87
1978 Sunnylawn Dr	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,678 (+2%)	5mo	$250,000	$149	85
1931 Cherrylawn Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,562 (-5%)	3mo	$260,000	$166	82
3438 Ravenwood Blvd	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,592 (-3%)	1mo	$190,000	$119	74
3431 Cragmoor Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,710 (+4%)	1mo	$220,000	$129	72
4073 Grandview Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,726 (+5%)	1mo	$300,000	$174	67
2274 W Country Club Pkwy	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,721 (+4%)	2mo	$191,400	$111	66
1861 Lynbrook Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+10%)	1mo	$180,000	$99	66
2053 Heatherwood Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,604 (-3%)	4mo	$265,000	$165	66
2079 Cherrylawn Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,853 (+12%)	3mo	$232,000	$125	61
3825 Heatherbrook Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,766 (+7%)	1mo	$255,000	$144	58
3278 Ravenwood Blvd	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,444 (-12%)	1mo	$189,900	$132	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-27,034
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,903
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43614

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,879/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,627

Max offer price $149,474

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-68	+0% $-116	+5% $-164	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-175	+0% $-116	+5% $-58	+10% $1
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-73	base $-116	+0.5pp $-160	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3042 Cragmoor Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,800	$1.44	45d	1	0.82mi
1255 S Byrne Rd Toledo, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1080	$1,529	$1.42	15d	1	1.02mi
3025 S Byrne Rd Unit 1 Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,095	$1.03	23d	1	1.09mi
1812 Glen Valley Dr Toledo, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	845	$1,275	$1.51	45d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $170,000 Pending 203 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $170,000 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $170,000 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-05-07
   price $170,000 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   3 bedroom with 1.5 baths. Great opportunity! Call today! This home features Living room, formal dining room, family room, and more. Extra's include enclosed patio, basement, and 2 car attached garage.

5. 2026-05-07
   price $154,900 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   3 bedroom with 1.5 baths. Great opportunity! Call today! This home features Living room, formal dining room, family room, and more. Extra's include enclosed patio, basement, and 2 car attached garage.

6. 2026-04-07
   price $170,000 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   3 bedroom with 1.5 baths. Great opportunity! Call today! This home features Living room, formal dining room, family room, and more. Extra's include enclosed patio, basement, and 2 car attached garage.

7. 2026-02-26
   price $180,000 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   3 bedroom with 1.5 baths. Great opportunity! Call today! This home features Living room, formal dining room, family room, and more. Extra's include enclosed patio, basement, and 2 car attached garage.

8. 2025-12-15
   price $190,000 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   3 bedroom with 1.5 baths. Great opportunity! Call today! This home features Living room, formal dining room, family room, and more. Extra's include enclosed patio, basement, and 2 car attached garage.

9. 2025-11-09
   listed $200,000 Active 200-char remark

   Show marketing remark (200 chars)

   3 bedroom with 1.5 baths. Great opportunity! Call today! This home features Living room, formal dining room, family room, and more. Extra's include enclosed patio, basement, and 2 car attached garage.

10. 1997-08-07
    soldstatus $125,900
11. 1989-09-21
    soldstatus $107,000
12. 1985-09-30
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,879 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,879 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$3,879
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,421
• − Management: −$1,421
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$4,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,026
• After-tax cash flow: $-368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 29,075
• Household income: $58,961
• Rent vs Own: 40.7% rent · 59.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1407.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Italian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.96%
• Current HPI: 214.7031
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.03%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+126.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $170,000 NORIS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $154,900 NORIS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $170,000 NORIS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $180,000 NORIS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $190,000 NORIS
• 2025-11-09 Listed $200,000 NORIS
• 1997-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $125,900 Public Records
• 1989-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 1985-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,879 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.