1308 E Swan Trl

Northlake, TX 76226

$346,858D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,744 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,971/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,819
• Tax + insurance: −$779
• HOA: −$188
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-439/mo
• Annual: $-5,267/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $97,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $347k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-439 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (14.3% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $269k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#936 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hilltop El (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 636 students, 8% FRL); Argyle Middle (math 73% / reading 63%, grade A-, #73 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 1,168 students, 0% FRL); Argyle H S (math 75% / reading 86%, grade A, #36 of 1,632 statewide, top 2%, 1,477 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 3% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Northwest ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1130 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.8% in Northlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.