4952 Meadow Bay Ct

Wimauma, FL 33598

$319,099D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,519 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 365 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,542/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax + insurance: −$532
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-197/mo
• Annual: $-2,361/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.64%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $89,348

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (20.3% below list).
• It's been on market 365 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#699 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment D-.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $92k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Wimauma — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 365 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.