3 Middle Acres

Newville, PA 17241

$170,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,655/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $187/mo
• Annual: $2,241/yr
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.71%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (2.6% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#722 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Big Spring SD (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #162 of 539 in PA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Big Spring Ms (math 21% / reading 59%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 593 students, 44% FRL); Big Spring Hs (math 57% / reading 24%, grade F, #255 of 437 statewide, top 60%, 739 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $170k implies a 623% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.