3 Middle Acres · Newville, PA 17241

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1997 0.77 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Here's your chance to enjoy a little slice of rural heaven! This one-level manufactured home sits on a beautiful . 77 acre lot with private well and septic -- you will own the land - NO LOT RENT!! The 1,188 feels quite spacious with an open floor plan in the center main living area encompassing the kitchen, dining, and living room. It's a split floor plan with the primary bedroom and full bath on one side and the other two bedrooms with 2nd bath on the other side of the home. Propane heat and cooking. Central air. Lots of parking and a semi-circular driveway. Two outdoor sheds for storage and lawn equipment. You could have a garden, room for entertaining, play, and pets! Come take a look f

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Private well
• Septic

Tags

• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• PROPANE HEAT
• CENTRAL AIR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#722 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Big Spring SD (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #162 of 539 in PA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Big Spring Ms (math 21% / reading 59%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 593 students, 44% FRL); Big Spring Hs (math 57% / reading 24%, grade F, #255 of 437 statewide, top 60%, 739 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $170k implies a 623% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,522 (2.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.71%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-15,663
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,641
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17241

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,655 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,903/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,419

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $235	+0% $187	+5% $139	+10% $90
Rent	-10% $56	-5% $121	+0% $187	+5% $252	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $272	-0.5pp $230	base $187	+0.5pp $143	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-09
   listed $170,000 Pending 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,903 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,294 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$392/yr (+$33/mo · 20.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,903
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$129
• After-tax cash flow: $2,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Spring SD
• NCES district ID: 4203660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,941
• Composite: 43.77/100
• National rank: #2942
• State rank: #162 of 539 in PA

Livability — Newville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #722
• US rank: #7158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,094

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.92%
• Current HPI: 285.3994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+623.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1996-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,903 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.