279 Cenizo

Carrizo Hill, TX 78834

$60,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 169 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,214/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $533/mo
• Annual: $6,395/yr
• Cap rate: 16.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.06%
• DSCR: 2.69
• 1% rule: 2.02%
• Cash to close: $16,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,500 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Carrizo Springs CISD (town): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #780 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Dimmit County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dimmit County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.